Market data and asset movements shows that the Dogecoin price is enduring its toughest quarter in years, with the memecoin struggling to defend the $0.17 support zone as persistent outflows and bearish sentiment pressure the market.
Dogecoin (DOGE) fell over 3% this week, testing the lower boundary of its ascending channel near $0.17, a critical level that has historically triggered rebound rallies.
A Dogecoin Price Technical Breakdown
According to CoinDesk data, the Dogecoin price decline accelerated after heavy selling during European trading hours, breaking below $0.1720 on strong volume before stabilizing.
Momentum indicators remain weak, with the daily RSI hovering around 41, suggesting limited buying strength. The 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages continue to act as resistance near $0.182 and $0.199, respectively, keeping the short-term trend bearish.
Despite this, on-chain data reveals that some mid-tier whales are quietly accumulating. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE have increased their holdings by nearly 5 billion coins since late October, even as larger holders liquidated over $700 million worth of DOGE.
This divergence among whale cohorts hints at potential volatility ahead, and possibly, an eventual recovery if market structure holds.
Analysts Point to Hidden Bullish Divergence and ETF Hopes
Technical analysts suggest that Dogecoin’s current weakness may be masking the setup for a powerful rebound. The weekly chart shows a hidden bullish divergence, where price makes higher lows while RSI forms lower lows, often signaling the end of a correction phase.
If the Dogecoin price maintains support above $0.17, traders expect a potential 33% rally toward $0.22, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone. Market watchers also note that a successful breakout above $0.188 could trigger short squeezes, given that short positions currently outweigh longs by a 5:1 ratio.
Adding fuel to optimism is speculation surrounding a possible Bitwise Spot Dogecoin ETF, which could arrive before year-end if auto-approval rules apply. Analysts believe such an event could inject fresh liquidity and institutional exposure, potentially ending the memecoin’s months-long consolidation.
Cover image from ChatGPT, DOGEUSD chart from Tradingview
