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Bitcoin’s recent struggle to maintain upward momentum continues, even as exchange-traded products, corporations, and institutional investors show strong buying interest. In a detailed analysis shared on X, Chris Kuiper, CFA, explained that the current selling pressure is mainly coming from long-term holders, the so-called HODLers, who are slowly taking profits after years of accumulation.
On-chain data shows that this selling is not a panic-driven event but rather a gradual and controlled shift in behavior, reflecting a more mature market dynamic.
Long-Term Holders Slowly Taking Profits
Kuiper highlighted the importance of one specific on-chain indicator. The percentage of Bitcoin that has remained inactive for at least one year. Historically, this metric rises during bear markets as investors hold their coins, then drops sharply during bull markets when holders sell into price rallies. This time, however, the pattern is more subdued. Instead of a sharp decline, the data shows a gentle and consistent downtrend, even as Bitcoin’s price has risen modestly.
This trend suggests that long-term holders are gradually realizing profits over time rather than selling in large waves. Kuiper believes this behavior matches a market that has been trading sideways, with investors acting cautiously and waiting for clearer signals before making big moves.
Investor Fatigue and Year-End Adjustments
Kuiper attributed part of this slow selling to investor fatigue. Bitcoin’s performance has recently underperformed both gold and the S&P 500, frustrating investors who expected stronger returns during what is typically a bullish phase in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Many anticipated a surge in October and November, months known for favorable seasonality, but that rally never arrived.
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As a result, some long-term holders have started locking in profits and adjusting their positions ahead of year-end, likely for tax management and portfolio rebalancing. This combination of disappointment and pragmatic decision-making has led to steady selling pressure, but not panic selling, as market participants manage risk more deliberately than in previous cycles.
A More Mature Market Cycle
Adding to Kuiper’s analysis, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, provided supporting data showing that Bitcoin’s 1-year inactive supply, a measure of long-term holder activity, has declined by only 10 percentage points in both the 2021 and current 2024–2025 cycles, compared to a sharper 20-point decline during 2017–2018.
Moreno’s findings confirm that this cycle’s selling has been measured and orderly, reflecting a more experienced investor base and a maturing Bitcoin market. Despite subdued price action, both analysts agree that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, and once seller exhaustion sets in, it could pave the way for the next significant price recovery.
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FAQs
Long-term holders are gradually taking profits after years of accumulation, not panic selling, creating controlled downward pressure.
Once selling fatigue sets in and profit-taking slows, reduced supply pressure could spark renewed upward momentum in Bitcoin’s price.
As per Coinpedia’s BTC price prediction, the Bitcoin price could peak at $168k this year if the bullish sentiment sustains.
With increased adoption, the price of Bitcoin could reach a height of $901,383.47 in 2030.
As per our latest BTC price analysis, Bitcoin could reach a maximum price of $13,532,059.98
