A key long-term indicator comparing Bitcoin to gold has just triggered a signal not seen before in market history. Analysts say such extreme compression typically precedes violent directional moves, and the fact that it’s happening at the intersection of two global safe-haven assets makes the setup even more significant. With BTC outperforming gold for over a decade, this rare signal suggests that the next phase of the BTC vs Gold battle could rewrite long-term market expectations.
What Happens After A Historic Squeeze?
The Bitcoin versus Gold monthly Bollinger Bands are expanding from the tightest reading in history. A chartered market technician and Bitcoin trader, Tony “The Bull” Severino, revealed on X that the price is currently sitting at the lower Bollinger band, and a decisive close below will trigger a sell signal as the bands expand from a squeeze setup.
According to TonyTheBullCMT, this setup creates the potential for a significant trending-down move, which is the first major downtrend on the BTC against Gold chart. This might look the same against the USD, so don’t expect it to translate 1:1 there. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that Gold looks ready to overshadow BTC. If BTC is at % billion in the middle and falling into that lower greenish section, it won’t be a good sign for BTC in this ratio.
The weekly Bollinger Bands on this pair were the tightest ever in history, and since they began to expand, BTC dropped over 25% in a couple of weeks. Meanwhile, the monthly signal is at least 4x stronger.
Bitcoin has been in a brutal downtrend throughout the year. Crypto analyst Zynx has pointed out that BTC is now sitting almost 50% below its all-time high against Gold, and the ratio shows that the crypto king has effectively been in a bear market for an entire year of 2025.
Over the last 12 months, BTC has been down 45% against Gold. At this point, it would need to rally 99% to surpass its previous all-time high against Gold, which shows that BTC must hit around $170,000 before it can begin to claim a true bull market.
Bitcoin And Gold Ratio Hits A Statistical Low Rarely Reached
Bitcoin has reached one of its rarest valuation points relative to gold in more than a decade. An analyst and founder of GREEND0TS, Stacy Muur, highlighted that the BTC/Gold ratio has just dropped below the statistical lower boundary of a 15-year power-law model.
Interestingly, BTC has breached this level only once before in late 2017 and snapped back within weeks. Historically, when BTC gets this incredibly cheap compared to Gold, it doesn’t stay cheap against Gold for long. This is not a timing signal; rather, it is a rare statistical anomaly worth watching.
