Bitcoin may be sliding into a new bear phase unless fresh macro liquidity – particularly through spot ETFs – returns to the market, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
Bitcoin Bear Market Incoming?
Sharing a composite on-chain dashboard overlaid on the BTC price, Ju wrote on X: “Most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish. Without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.” The chart stacks ten CryptoQuant metrics behind the price in a red-to-green heatmap from 2021 to 2025, highlighting how regime shifts in prior cycles coincided with clusters of bearish readings.
The indicators in the panel include the MVRV Z-score, CryptoQuant P&L Index, the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price and a Technical Signal metric. When the majority are bullish, the backdrop turns light green; when they flip bearish, it shifts to red. In the latest section of the chart, as BTC has pulled back from its highs, red once again dominates – the visual basis for Ju’s warning.
For the next major move, Ju argues that on-chain data is now subordinate to macro conditions and ETF flows. Quoting his own post, he wrote: “It is simple. If you think macro gets better next year, you buy. Otherwise, you sell. I’m not a macro expert, so find macro bros. New ETF inflows are the key.”
That line pinpoints what he believes can “save” Bitcoin from a deeper drawdown: renewed demand from spot ETFs as a conduit for institutional capital. In earlier stages of the cycle, rising ETF inflows coincided with strong price appreciation; more recently, slowing or negative flows have mirrored the loss of upward momentum.
Ju frames the current environment as one that demands flexible scenario management rather than rigid forecasts. “At this stage, it is more about being reactive than predictive. Set your scenarios and trade accordingly,” he told followers. The composite chart is designed for exactly that purpose, showing how past bull tops and bear markets aligned with persistent stretches of red across profit, valuation and liquidity metrics.
Despite the bearish tilt, Ju does not foresee a repeat of the 2022 collapse, when Bitcoin fell roughly 65% from peak to trough. He cites the behaviour of Michael Saylor led Strategy as a stabilizing factor. “If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022,” he wrote. In his view, that supply remaining largely off the market reduces the probability of a violent deleveraging event.
Ju characterizes the current pullback as substantial but not extreme in historical context. “We are about -25% from ATH now, and even if a bear cycle comes, the downside would likely be smaller and look more like a broad sideways range,” he argued, suggesting that prolonged consolidation is more likely than a single dramatic crash.
His message to long-term investors is explicitly calming. “Long-term holders should avoid panic selling,” he advised. While cyclical on-chain indicators flash red, he insists the structural backdrop has improved: “Bitcoin has more liquidity channels now, so the long-term outlook is obviously strong, imo.” Those channels include ETFs and a deeper institutional market structure than in prior cycles.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,494.
