According to an ambitious research study published by asset manager and cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer VanEck, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach a staggering price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050.
The insights come from Matthew Sigel, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, who have employed a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s role in two primary total addressable markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks.
VanEck Projects 15% CAGR For Bitcoin
In their analysis, Sigel and Bush project a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from Bitcoin’s current levels, which would position the cryptocurrency as a significant player in the global economy.
The report outlines two structural shifts that they believe will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s appreciation. The first, dubbed the Settlement Pivot, predicts that by 2050, Bitcoin will be responsible for settling between 5% and 10% of global international trade, as well as 5% of domestic trade transactions.
The second crucial aspect, referred to as the Reserve Pivot, connects Bitcoin’s potential growth to waning trust in G7 sovereign debt. As confidence in these currencies diminishes, the authors anticipate that central banks might allocate resources toward Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal instability.
Yet, the VanEck report does not stop at a mere base case; it also explores a more optimistic scenario termed the Bull Case.
‘Hyper-Bitcoinization’
In this scenario, known as “hyper-bitcoinization,” if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its value could skyrocket to $53.4 million per coin, representing a major 29% CAGR.
Achieving this would require Bitcoin to either equal or surpass gold’s status as a primary global reserve asset, making up nearly 30% of financial assets worldwide.
For context, the report uses a baseline current price of approximately $88,000 when projecting these values. Interestingly, it incorporates a Bear Case target of $130,000, reflecting a modest 2% CAGR.
In terms of correlation, VanEck anticipates that Bitcoin will exhibit low to moderate correlation with global equities, bonds, and gold over various market cycles. Notably, they emphasize a persistent negative correlation with the US Dollar (DXY), reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against monetary debasement.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
