Cardano (ADA) may be nearing the end of a multi-month corrective phase that closely resembles its 2020 setup, according to a new technical analysis video posted Wednesday by crypto analyst Quantum Ascend. The analyst argues that a similar “lower trendline reset” preceded ADA’s prior breakout cycle, and that several weekly indicators are now starting to turn.
Cardano’s 2020 Fractal Is Back
In a Jan. 7 video shared on X, Quantum Ascend said he is looking at ADA’s weekly chart through a macro, multi-leg corrective framework. “On a macro count for ADA, you’re looking at an A, B, C, D, and right now waiting on an E,” he said, framing the current market structure as the late stage of a broader consolidation rather than a fresh downtrend.
That “E” leg matters in their model because it effectively marks the final phase of a wedge-like compression. Quantum Ascend pointed to an upper trendline, Fibonacci levels, and prior work published in a mid-December video to justify upside targets once the structure completes. “Essentially you have upper trendline, you have some Fib stuff in play, I have a conservative of five bucks, primary up there at $10,” he said. “And then after that, I think it gets ugly for crypto for a little while, so still a believer that alt season is ahead of us.”
The core of the argument, however, wasn’t the targets themselves, it was the claimed resemblance to an earlier Cardano correction. Quantum Ascend overlaid a historical “fractal” to highlight comparable price behavior: a move up to a similar level, a pullback, another push into resistance, and then a wick that tagged roughly the same area on the overlay. “This correction right here that I just took this from, look at how similar it is to that correction that we just had,” he said. “Obviously it’s not perfect, but if you tried to get it close from a price structure standpoint… look where that wick on 10.10 went, exactly right there.”
In the analyst’s telling, that prior pattern was the market’s way of forcing ADA down to establish a lower trendline before the next expansion. “So this is the same exact move that Cardano had to come down to set the lower trendline,” he said. “So right now setting the lower trendline, before it went on a blast off.”
He then referenced the scale of Cardano’s last major run as a reminder of what altcoin cycles have historically looked like when momentum turns. “And how far did it end up running? Well, it ended up going 170X from that point in time, from a penny all the way up to $3,” Quantum Ascend said, using that move as context for why double-digit targets don’t automatically fall into the “impossible” bucket during late-cycle expansions.
The more immediate claim is that the upside implied by a $10 target is not unprecedented in percentage terms compared with prior alt cycles. “When you’re looking at how far that $10 mark is from where we’re at right now, I mean 22X, right? 25X,” he said. “What was this alt season back here? This alt season was just 2021… That was a 21X… So it’s not unreasonable to be looking for 24X there. And then even on the conservative side, more of a 12X.”
On indicators, Quantum Ascend highlighted early signs of a weekly momentum shift rather than a confirmed breakout. “You have a completed ABC. This thing’s ready to turn back around,” he said, adding that broader market conditions looked supportive of a bounce. The analyst also pointed to the weekly RSI beginning to lift after an extended period near lows.
“Look at the RSI here on the weekly, finally starting to curl up off the floor. We’ve been down on the floor since October 27th that week, finally getting a little juice.” The analyst described negative momentum as “been decreasing,” and referenced an “ABC” structure on MACD as another piece of the same turning narrative.
“A lot of these major moves happen when the weekly RSI goes from low to high,” Quantum Ascend said, arguing that higher timeframes can be slower but more reliable when they finally rotate.
Quantum Ascend closed by saying he remains constructive on the project even without a current position. “I am a big believer in this project. I don’t hold any right now. It’s just the way that my portfolio has worked out,” he said. “But I do believe that there’s going to be some massive upside coming to Cardano.”
At press time, ADA traded at $0.3925.
