The cost of importing Chinese cars to Canada is set to drop steeply with a recent cut in tariffs. How will that affect EV sales? And are Canada’s charging network and power grid ready for more cars?
Policy experts, analysts and researchers who study the EV transition in Canada say the number of Chinese EVs expected in Canada needs context. And they say while our charging and grid infrastructure can handle the demand, there are some gaps and challenges that need to be addressed as we grow our EV fleet.
China will be allowed to export up to 49,000 EVs a year to Canada at a tariff rate of 6.1 per cent instead of 100 per cent, the federal government announced earlier this month. That should make more of them available to Canadians at a lower price.
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Not really. The federal government said it represents three per cent of annual auto sales, and is the approximate number of Chinese EVs sold in Canada in 2023 and 2024 (before the 100 per cent tariff was imposed), including models from Tesla, Polestar and Volvo.
The number also represents only 19 per cent of the 264,000 zero-emission vehicles sold in Canada in 2024, meaning the vast majority of EVs will continue to be produced elsewhere.
Lindsay Wiginton co-leads the mobility practice at energy and climate consulting firm Dunsky. She said the Chinese imports could make a “moderate to significant” contribution to EV sales in Canada.
But Dunsky’s modelling showed that even before this announcement, EV sales were set to grow a lot between now and 2040. Even in a “low-growth” scenario, four in five light-duty vehicles sold in 2040 are expected to be zero emissions, according to a 2025 report for the industry association Electric Mobility Canada. That means the impact of Chinese imports would likely decline over time.
It’s not clear whether Chinese EVs would add to or displace other EV sales. That may depend partly on when cheaper Chinese cars — not just Teslas and Polestars — arrive.
The federal government said 50 per cent of the quota would be reserved for cars with an import price of less than $35,000 in 2030. (The retail price could be higher). But it hasn’t said whether any quota of cheaper cars would be imposed in the next four years.
Joanna Kyriazis, policy director at the think-tank Clean Energy Canada, suggested that either way, some Chinese manufacturers might enter the market with discounts “to get Canadians excited about and familiar with some new brands that they haven’t seen yet and could have some skepticism around.”
In places such as Europe and Australia, the availability of lower-cost Chinese vehicles has spurred competition and availability of lower cost EV options overall, she added. As of September, the EU had 21 EV models available for under $40,000 (Canada had just one, the Fiat 500e, with a range of just 227 km). Seven were from Chinese automakers and the rest from European, Japanese and Korean brands.
Moataz Mohamed is a civil engineering professor at McMaster University who researches how people make decisions about whether to buy an EV. He said Canadians who haven’t yet bought EVs are sensitive to the purchase price, even if they know a vehicle will save them money on fuel in the long term.
Daniel Breton, president and CEO of Electric Mobility Canada said having more choice, especially of cheaper vehicles, will lead to higher adoption. But he doesn’t think allowing in 49,000 Chinese cars alone will do the trick — he sees a need for supportive government policies, like the EV availability standard that was paused in September. It would have set sales targets for EVs as a percentage of all vehicles sold, starting at 20 per cent in 2026.
Quebec and B.C. have their own similar legislation, boosting availability and sales of EVs in those provinces — those two provinces accounted for 71 per cent of Canadian EV sales in 2024, according to Statistics Canada.
Both Mohamed and Breton do think that adding more Chinese EVs to the market could lower used EV prices, opening the market to a whole new segment of EV buyers.
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In general, Canada’s existing charging infrastructure should be more than enough to handle a few tens of thousands more EVs each year, said Danielle Wiess, Director of Transportation Initiatives at the Community Energy Association, a non-profit that supports the clean energy transition.
As of Jan. 26, there were 38,739 public EV chargers at 14,445 stations across Canada, Natural Resources Canada data shows.
“The infrastructure exists in most places,” Wiess said. “You’re really just going to increase utilization.” That would boost return on investment and could incentivize the installation of more charging.
But the charging network does need to grow with Canada’s EV fleet, and there are still notable gaps in infrastructure, such as in remote areas and in apartment and condo buildings.
Mohamed said access to home charging is key to people’s decision to have an EV, but is something many people in urban apartments and condos don’t have. “There will be a cap to EV adoption within this market segment until the infrastructure is catching up,” he said.
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Wiginton said the nice thing about EV is they don’t have to be charged at any particular time. That means they can be used to make more efficient use of the same amount of infrastructure, which can drive down the cost of electricity.
Dunsky interviewed 10 utilities across the country about how they’re preparing the grid.
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“We heard it’s a big change, but one they’re prepared for,” Wiginton said. “What helps them most is market certainty.”
Policies such as the ZEV Availability Standard help utilities predict how many EVs to expect in coming years. That helps them justify infrastructure investments and expansions to regulators, Wiginton said.
