Bitwise is laying out a bold scenario: Bitcoin could climb to a new record in 2026 and, if the stars align as the sages would say, may one day reach $1 million over the next 10 years. That view rests less on past rhythms and more on a shift in who buys and how they buy.
Institutional Demand Could Soar
According to Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise’s Director of Research, big money is moving from the sidelines onto the field. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and major brokerages have made buying easier for pension funds, endowments, and fund managers.
Reports say these channels could funnel tens of billions into the market in 2026 alone. That scale of buying would change how supply shocks play out; a surge of steady inflows can soften the sharp drops that used to follow supply events.
JUST IN: $15 billion Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high this year
“We believe Bitcoin will hit $1,000,000” pic.twitter.com/k4z9Yk8FEF
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) February 3, 2026
Halving’s Role Is Changing
For years, the four-year halving was treated like clockwork: lower miner rewards, tighter new supply, and big price moves. Bitwise now argues that effect is fading.
Market access is broader, and more investor types hold stakes, so prices react to a more complex mix of demand signals.
Interest rate shifts and the heavy liquidations seen in late 2025 also altered how margin and credit affect crypto moves. Price patterns are being shaped by more varied forces than before.
Volatility Has Quieted
Reports note a steady fall in Bitcoin’s wild swings over the past decade. In 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility was lower than some major tech stocks, a change that surprises many long-time observers.
This makes the asset easier to hold for institutional managers who need predictable risk profiles. At the same time, ties to US equities appear to be loosening.
A lower correlation would let Bitcoin serve as a distinct allocation in a diversified portfolio, rather than just another proxy for broader market mood.
Near-Term Pain, Longer-Term Case?
Bitcoin hit lows under $80,000 recently, trading near $75,000 at one point. Those moves wiped about 10% off value in a week and left the coin roughly 35% below the October 6, 2025 peak of $126,085.
Short-term stress is real. Some capital left the market in sharp selloffs, and sentiment cooled. Yet Bitwise thinks these shocks could be less defining going forward, because buying via ETFs and brokerages does not always behave like retail-driven swings.
The vision of Bitcoin reaching $1 million may seem distant, but Rasmussen sees it as a realistic outcome if current trends continue.
Rising institutional demand and broader market access could make 2026 a turning point, setting the stage for a decade where Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset, but a serious contender for long-term wealth growth.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
