A long-term Bitcoin bull is imploring investors to stay measured and strategic in the middle of brutal short-term challenges for the market.
In a detailed thread posted on X, market analyst Caleb Franzen made it clear that being bullish over the long run does not mean ignoring the realities of the current price structure. He outlined a framework built around bear market behavior, moving average breakdowns, and predefined invalidation levels.
Recognizing The Breakdown Below Key Moving Averages
Franzen pointed to Bitcoin’s breakdown below the 2-day 200 moving average cloud in November 2025, around $97,000, as the important turning point. According to him, every major Bitcoin bear market has begun with a decisive break below this level.
The chart accompanying his post shows Bitcoin’s multi-year price action alongside long-term moving average clouds. The red and blue bands illustrate how price tends to trade above these moving averages during uptrends and below them during extended downtrends. Each previous bear market phase began with a loss of the 2-day 200 MA structure, followed by prolonged weakness.
Franzen also highlighted the 200-week moving average cloud, another level that has historically acted as a bear market magnet. At the time of the breakdown, that zone sat between approximately $55,000 and $65,000. However, he noted that in 2022, Bitcoin fell about 30% below the 200-week MA cloud before finally bottoming.
Factoring that in, there are obvious scenarios where Bitcoin could drop 20% to 33% below the 200-week MA band, placing downside targets between roughly $37,000 and $44,000. Interestingly, this range aligns closely with the long-term holder realized price, currently near $41,700, another level that has always drawn price during bear phases.
Using Historical Data Without Becoming Trapped By It
Bitcoin has experienced multiple 20% to 30% pullbacks even within strong bull markets. In bear markets, those declines can persist for quarters, not just weeks or months. However, he stressed that preparing for a prolonged downturn does not mean assuming it must happen.
Despite presenting a bearish base case supported by historical metrics, Franzen was careful to make a point that history does not guarantee repetition. His approach is based on weighing probabilities, not certainties.
It would be better to be prepared for a multi-quarter decline and be pleasantly surprised by resilience than to expect a quick recovery and be caught off guard by deeper weakness. That mindset would allow investors to avoid emotional decision-making.
There is also the case of boxing oneself into a single outcome. Waiting exclusively for a $40,000 retest could prove costly if Bitcoin finds support earlier and resumes its uptrend. Interestingly, Franzen also laid out specific conditions that would shift his stance.
If the breakdown below the 2-day 200 MA cloud was the official bearish indication in November 2025, then a breakout back above that same structure would serve as a bullish signal. A reclaim of the 2-day 200 MA cloud and the 55-week moving average cloud at $99,000 is the line in the sand to turn constructive again.
