The XRP price returned to a technical level that, historically, has defined some of its most explosive rallies. After enduring a sharp 62% correction that culminated in a drop toward $1.10 on February 6, the token is once again testing its long-term ascending support trendline.
Amid this, the broader crypto market has shown signs of recovery this week, offering some relief. On Wednesday, the XRP price rebounded roughly 6%, while Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above the critical $70,000 level, restoring a measure of optimism across risk assets despite ongoing global tensions.
Historic XRP Price Support
In a Wednesday report, market analyst Sam Daodu pointed out that the XRP price is sitting on the same rising trendline that has historically preceded dramatic upside moves — including a 630% rally in 2024 and an extraordinary surge of more than 60,000% in 2017.
What makes this retest different, Daodu noted, is that it is happening for the first time with a fully established spot XRP Exchange-traded fund (ETF) infrastructure behind it.
Since their launch in November 2025, US spot XRP exchange-traded funds have attracted $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows over four consecutive positive months. Approximately 797 million XRP are now held in ETF custody.
At the same time, institutional wallets accumulated an additional 170 million XRP during the most recent price dip. Ripple also re-locked 700 million XRP into escrow on March 1, maintaining its standard release cycle and limiting new supply from entering the market.
March seasonality adds another layer to the setup. Over the past 12 years, XRP has delivered an average return of 18% in March, making it statistically the strongest month of the first quarter.
$4 Target Emerges
From a technical standpoint, the $1.27 level represents the first area of support to monitor. It aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and has served as a bear market floor throughout the correction.
Below that, the $1.10–$1.11 zone marks the precise location of the long-term ascending trendline that held in February. A decisive break beneath $1.10 would represent the first failure of this channel since 2015 and could expose the XRP price to a deeper pullback toward $0.85–$1.00.
On the upside, $1.47 stands as the nearest Fibonacci resistance, followed closely by the $1.50 neckline of the double bottom. A sustained close above $1.50 would confirm the pattern and project a move toward $1.68–$1.70.
Beyond that range, on-chain data shows roughly 1.85 billion XRP accumulated between $1.76 and $1.80, a zone where holders may look to exit at breakeven, potentially creating substantial resistance.
The most significant supply cluster lies between $2.40 and $2.60; a weekly close above that band would invalidate the broader descending structure and signal a more decisive trend reversal.
Combining historical March strength, capitulation signals, and structural supply constraints, Daodu suggests the XRP price could potentially reach a range between $2.50 and $4.00 by late 2026.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
