Reports indicate investment bank TD Cowen warned the CLARITY Act may not pass until 2027 and could take effect in 2029.
Lawmakers And Deadlines
The bill’s timetable is tight. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital said if the CLARITY Act doesn’t clear committee by the end of April, the chances of passage in 2026 fall sharply.
Senate leaders have signaled other items will take priority on the floor, leaving little room for a complex compromise.
Debate over stablecoin rewards is where many expect the fight to play out. Banks and crypto firms remain divided on whether yielding rewards via stablecoins undermines traditional banking models.
Some lawmakers and lobbyists are already trading hard lines; compromise will be needed for any bill to move.
if CLARITY doesn’t pass committee by end of april, odds of passage in 2026 become extremely low. this needs to hit the senate floor by early may… floor time is running out and odds diminish every day that passes
the framing right now is that the dispute over stablecoins… pic.twitter.com/tEejEsmUi9
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) March 14, 2026
A Senior Lawmaker Said Both Sides Would Have To Give Ground
Officials said members of the Senate Banking Committee expect give-and-take. A top Democrat on the panel warned that neither side is likely to be fully satisfied but that negotiations must continue for progress.
Timing is also a political problem. One senator has publicly said the chamber won’t act before April because it has other priorities, and that squeeze on the calendar makes a late push risky.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has criticized banks for slowing the bill’s progress, adding public pressure to move the measure.
Crypto Regulation: Timing Could Stretch Years
Some analysts expect the process to stretch past the next election cycle if consensus can’t be reached soon. That prospect raises the possibility that a market-structure package could be delayed for multiple sessions of Congress, or reworked under new leadership.
According to statements from a crypto-friendly senator, there’s still hope the bill can clear Congress by April — but that hope depends on quick committee action and compromises on key items.
What’s At Stake
The bill’s outcome matters far beyond Washington. Clear rules could change how institutions engage with crypto, how exchanges operate, and how stablecoins are treated.
For now, the clock is the clearest fact: if the CLARITY Act doesn’t move fast, its path will get harder, and its timetable could stretch into the next Congress.
Featured image from Harris Sliwoski LLP, chart from TradingView
