For the first time in nearly two months, the Bitcoin price had a sustained run above the psychological $70,000 level over the past week. However, the increased likelihood of potential interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve on Friday, March 20, seems to have elevated market apprehension. Interestingly, an on-chain evaluation suggests that the Bitcoin price was always destined for another round of downside movement — this time below the $50,000 level.
Is BTC Price Preparing For Another Leg Down?
In a Friday post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared an on-chain insight into the potential bottom of the BTC price in the current bear cycle. According to the market pundit, the price of Bitcoin appears to be headed to the $43,000 level before starting the next bull cycle.
This projection is based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing bands, which show the different profitability levels of the premier cryptocurrency. These pricing bands also function as dynamic support and resistance levels, as they compare the current market price to the average realized value (average cost basis) of all investors.
As shown in the chart above, MVRV pricing bands have proven, in past cycles, to be quite effective in predicting market tops and bottoms. Using the on-chain metric, Martinez has identified the 0.8 MVRV band as the potential bottom of the Bitcoin price in the ongoing bear market.
Martinez revealed that over the past decade, the price of BTC has always rebounded from this 0.8 MVRV band, marking the start of a fresh bull cycle. The highlighted chart shows the flagship cryptocurrency bouncing back to a new high after hitting its cycle low — around this band in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
According to data from Glassnode, the 0.8 MVRV band currently lies around the $43,647 region, putting the potential bottom of this cycle nearly 40% away from the current price. If history were to repeat itself, this on-chain evaluation suggests that the Bitcoin price could be at risk of further downside in the coming months.
It is important to mention that while the 0.8 MVRV band is currently at $43,647, it is liable to change with further movements in price.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $70,477, reflecting a 0.6% increase in the past 24 hours.
