Circle stock, CRCL, experienced a significant decline over the past day following news of a proposed ban on stablecoin yield. Despite this selloff, Bitwise’s CIO maintains that the market reaction was excessive and projects that the company’s valuation will likely double by 2030.
Circle Selloff Was ‘Overblown’ – Bitwise CIO
On Tuesday, Circle Internet Financial, the issuer behind the USDC stablecoin, saw its stock crash 22% to $98 following reports about lawmakers’ decision on the stablecoin yield dispute.
CRCL’s selloff was driven by news that a revised draft of the Senate Banking Committee’s crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, would prohibit platforms from offering yield, directly or indirectly, for holding a stablecoin, or in a manner that resembles a bank deposit.
Despite the selloff, some market experts have made the case for Circle, highlighting it as a good opportunity and “the most obvious choice” to invest in the stablecoins sector. In his weekly memo, Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, called the market’s reaction “overblown.” He asserted that the latest draft of the CLARITY Act doesn’t alter the base case forecast for Circle.
Interest income has not been a primary driver of stablecoin growth to date; the vast majority of stablecoins today are held in ways that don’t pay interest. Stablecoins have exploded in popularity because they let people move money anywhere in the world efficiently and reliably—for trade settlement, as collateral in lending, as an alternative to unstable national currencies, and more.
Hougan also emphasized that stablecoins offer convenience, which is “the killer app for money,” pointing out that the average savings account and average checking account yield 0.60% and 0.07%, respectively.
“People aren’t parking their money there for the yield,” he noted, adding that as the global financial system increasingly transitions to blockchain-based rails, stablecoins are expected to assume a more significant role in this shift, irrespective of whether they offer interest.
The Case For Circle’s $75B Valuation
Diving deeper into his outlook for Circle, Hougan shared key projections for the broader stablecoin sector’s market capitalization and the company’s potential market share in the coming years.
Citing Citigroup’s report, he asserted that the “base case” for stablecoin‘s assets under management (AUM) projects it will reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, while a “bull case” estimates it at $4 trillion.
Bitwise’s CIO also highlighted that Circle’s USDC, the second-largest dollar-pegged token, holds 25% of the overall stablecoin market share, only behind Tether’s USDT, but has a much larger share of the regulated stablecoin market, with an estimated 80%+ share.
If you think much of the growth of stablecoin AUM will come from those markets (as banks, fintechs, and major enterprises opt for onshore, regulated stablecoins), you might expect Circle’s market share to increase well beyond its current 25% share.
Lastly, he addressed what Circle could potentially earn on deposits in four years. As he explained, the company earns roughly 4% interest on $80 billion of its AUM backing USDC, but shares around 60% with distribution partners like Coinbase, netting a 1.6% take rate.
While its sustainability hinges on interest rates and competition from rival stablecoins, Hougan projected that the take rate will be cut in half by 2030, to 0.8%.
Using these “conservative assumptions” on the broader stablecoins market cap, the company’s market share, and margin, Bitwise’s CIO concluded that Circle could hit “$75 billion by 2030—even with the recent CLARITY Act concerns.”
