Premier Doug Ford’s government tables its eighth budget Thursday, as Ontario’s economy faces global economic volatility and heightened levels of unemployment at home.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy is due to deliver the spending plan in the legislature at 4 p.m. ET.
Here’s what to watch for.
Ontario’s former chief economist on what’s missing in Ford’s 2025 budget
Ontario’s economy has struggled, but also shown resilience in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
That’s because the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the province’s trade-exposed economy has been uneven, hitting some sectors harder than others.
Unemployment in Ontario was 7.6 per cent in February, and has been steadily on the rise since mid-2023, well before Trump returned to office. In the second and third quarters of 2025, the province lost nearly 40,000 jobs in the auto, steel and aluminum sectors because of the tariffs.
But there have been some positive signs.
The province’s independent fiscal watchdog said the province appeared to avoid a recession in 2025 as the final numbers for the year were tallied. The Financial Accountability Office said in a separate report that Ontario’s gross domestic product growth, the broadest measure of economic health, was better than expected in 2025.
But with the war in Iran affecting fuel costs and uncertainty surrounding this summer’s free trade negotiations, it’s a challenging environment in which to write a fiscal plan.
The budget documents will provide a glimpse into the province’s economic projections for 2026, so those will be metrics to watch closely.
Ford has said in the weeks leading up to the budget that his focus will be on protecting the economy from Trump’s tariffs.
“It’s all about protecting communities, protecting their jobs,” Ford said recently. “It’s about the economy, making sure people can bring home a paycheque. It’s absolutely critical.”
But the premier hasn’t spelled out what that specific tariff-relief policy will look like. Last year, the province earmarked $14 billion in targeted aid, which largely focused on time-limited tax deferrals for hard-hit businesses.
But those measures ended last fall. So what’s next?
Ontario’s former chief economist, Brian Lewis, said he doesn’t expect the same approach this year. He expects the government will leave itself more fiscal wiggle room to respond to sudden economic shocks like a worst-case scenario in the CUSMA talks.
That may come in the form of a multi-billion dollar contingency fund built into the spending plan.
“I think they would be well served by being explicitly quite prudent in this budget,” Lewis said in a recent interview with CBC News.
It’s possible.
We have seen some cost estimates attached to several pre-budget announcements like promised purchasing cards for teachers and HST rebates on new home purchases.
That said, the budget is prepared weeks, if not months, in advance. The 200-plus page booklet could have already been at the printers as the government unveiled some of these announcements.
The budget does include information about these major infrastructure projects, but cost breakdowns are not always included.
For example, Ford first floated the idea of the tunnel under Highway 401 in the summer of 2024. It was a major plank of his re-election bid in 2025. The only hard price tag is $9.1 million for a feasibility study, for what could be one of the largest infrastructure projects in the history of Ontario.
The government is correct when it says it is spending more on both sectors than previous governments. But that argument lacks some important context.
Just like the cost of goods and services you work into your household budget, costs in health and education jump every year for the government. They have also been subject to high inflation rates at times over the past eight years since the PCs came to power.
And Ontario’s population has grown by nearly 1.5 million people since 2020, increasing demand for services like health care.
Critics question whether government spending has kept pace with those rising costs, exacerbated by high inflation and population growth, in order to maintain the same levels of service. They say the Ford government has fallen short on both health care and education.
We’ll have to watch where those numbers stand in the budget.
Opposition parties are pressuring the government to include measures to address the rising cost of living and affordability.
They say the government has failed to address the rising unemployment rate in Ontario and provide meaningful help to people struggling to make ends meet.
The NDP, Liberal and Green parties will all have an opportunity to respond to the government’s spending plan immediately after the government releases it later today.
