A cluster of roughly 650,000 Bitcoin sits at the $70,000–$72,000 price range — coins bought by investors who are now waiting to break even. That supply overhang is the wall Bitcoin must climb if its March recovery is going to mean anything.
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A Streak That Hasn’t Been Seen Since 2018
Bitcoin closed March up 2%, snapping five consecutive months of losses. It was the longest such run of red monthly candles since 2018, and data from CoinGlass confirms the streak is over.
The final close puts Bitcoin at roughly $68,250 as April opens, with traders watching closely to see whether the momentum holds or fades.
The last time Bitcoin strung together six straight losing months was in 2018 going into early 2019. What followed was a sharp turnaround — Bitcoin went on to post gains exceeding 300% over the next five months.
THIS IS A MASSIVE DOSE OF HOPIUM.
Bitcoin just printed its first green monthly candle after 5 consecutive red months.
Let’s hope this is not an April Fool’s joke. pic.twitter.com/dUAw1Yb4aX
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) April 1, 2026
Some analysts are pointing to that episode as a rough blueprint for what could come next. Analyst Ash Crypto called the March close “a massive dose of hopium” on X, pointing to the possible shift in momentum as a sign that a sustained recovery could be underway.
Trader Satoshi Flipper noted on X that the last time Bitcoin fell for six months straight, it climbed for the following five. That kind of historical comparison draws attention, though it rests on a single prior example.
Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!
What are our next 5 months going to look like after BTC just finished dumping 5 months in a row? pic.twitter.com/DviQHfNell
— Satoshi Flipper (@SatoshiFlipper) April 1, 2026
The $70,000 Zone Is The Real Test
The $70,000–$72,000 range isn’t just a round number. It’s where the 50-day simple moving average, the 50-day exponential moving average, and the cost basis of a large block of investors all converge.
Data from Glassnode shows that approximately 650,000 BTC were acquired in that price range — meaning a significant number of holders are underwater and likely to sell once they recover their losses.
Breaking through that zone could open the door to $76,000, and potentially $80,000 after that. Trader Sheldon Diedericks said on X that Bitcoin could push up toward $83,000 on the monthly chart — a level that acted as support back in April 2025 and sits close to the 200-day exponential moving average.
If the rally stalls, the floor levels matter just as much. The 200-week exponential moving average sits around $68,300 — just below where Bitcoin is currently trading. Below that, $59,400 marks the 200-week simple moving average, and around $54,000 sits Bitcoin’s realized price, a level watched closely as a potential bear market floor.
April Has A Mixed Track Record
Here’s the complication: April doesn’t always follow March’s lead. Based on data going back to 2013, Bitcoin has closed April in the green eight out of 13 years, with average returns around 12%. But nine out of those same 13 years, April moved in the opposite direction from March.
More recently, Bitcoin dropped in April after a green March close in three of the four years between 2021 and 2024.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
