XRP is struggling below $1.35. Selling pressure is present. Uncertainty is higher. And the largest participants in the market have quietly stepped back from the exchange in a way that changes the overhead supply picture entirely.
A CryptoQuant analysis tracking whale activity on Binance has identified a behavioral shift that sits directly beneath the current price weakness. Daily whale inflows to Binance have fallen to approximately 12.60 million XRP — a fraction of the hundreds of millions that characterized the most active distribution periods earlier in the cycle. The 30-day cumulative flow indicator has dropped to approximately 1.44 billion XRP, one of its lowest readings since the start of 2026.
The significance is structural. Whale inflows to exchanges are the market’s primary mechanism for large-scale distribution — coins arriving at venues where they can be immediately sold into available liquidity. When those inflows collapse to multi-year lows, the pipeline of large-holder selling that has been weighing on XRP’s price has narrowed considerably.
XRP below $1.35 looks like a market under pressure. The whale data describes something more specific: a market where the heaviest sellers have reduced their activity to near-silence — and the price has not yet responded to their absence.
The Selling Infrastructure Has Pulled Back
The report’s behavioral interpretation of the whale inflow decline is where the data becomes most consequential. When large holders move XRP to Binance, the intent is rarely ambiguous — exchanges are selling venues, not storage facilities.
High whale inflows historically precede selling pressure because they represent large holders positioning their coins where they can act on them immediately. The reverse is equally readable: when whale inflows fall to multi-year lows, it reflects a deliberate decision by large participants to keep their XRP off the exchange and away from the immediate sell side.
The March comparison gives the current reading its full weight. At the peak of whale activity, the 30-day cumulative flow reached approximately 2.6 billion XRP — a level that represented sustained, large-scale movement of holdings toward Binance. Since then, the gradual retreat has been consistent and directional, bringing the cumulative figure down to approximately 1.44 billion — a reduction of nearly half in the primary distribution metric.
What has been removed from the market is not trivial. The infrastructure for large-scale selling — the pipeline of coins moving toward the exchange sell side — has contracted significantly since March. That contraction does not guarantee price recovery. It removes one of the most consistent structural arguments against it.
The heaviest sellers have stepped back. The price has not yet noticed.
XRP Tests Structural Support as Weekly Momentum Breaks Down
XRP is trading near $1.30 on the weekly timeframe, and the structure is clearly transitioning from expansion to correction. The rejection from the $3.00–$3.50 region established a decisive lower high, breaking the prior bullish sequence and shifting momentum to the downside.
Since that peak, the price has moved steadily lower, losing the 50-week moving average and now testing the 100-week average as support. The 200-week moving average remains below, near the $1.00 region, and represents the next major structural level if current support fails.
What stands out is the speed and cleanliness of the decline. The breakdown from above $2.00 occurred with strong directional movement, followed by only weak and short-lived bounces. This suggests that demand has not returned with enough strength to absorb selling pressure at higher levels.
Volume confirms this imbalance. Selling phases have been accompanied by higher participation, while recoveries show declining interest. That asymmetry typically reflects distribution rather than accumulation.
The key level is the current $1.25–$1.30 zone. A sustained break below it would likely accelerate downside toward the 200-week average. On the upside, reclaiming $1.80 is necessary to stabilize the structure, but a true trend shift would require a move back above $2.20.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
