Bitcoin’s price has fallen over 50% from its all-time high achieved in October 2025, triggering a bearish market phase across the board as investors exit their positions to cut down losses. Despite falling this hard, the downside action does not seem to have reached its end yet, as key metrics point to an extended period of bearish activity.
Bitcoin Market Is Still Bearish
An increasing amount of on-chain data is starting to give Bitcoin a wary outlook, as a crucial market indicator suggests that downward pressure is likely to persist. This signal emerges from the Bitcoin Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index (TBBI), a key metric that captures multi-year sentiment cycles and reveals the real structure positioning of the market beyond short-term volatility.
Joao Wedson, the founder of Alphractal and market strategist, stated that this chart shows that bears are hiding from the market, and it is currently sitting in extreme bearish territory. While price action has shown signs of consolidation, this is a sign that selling momentum may not yet be exhausted.
Historically, this zone appears when retail investors are exhausted, narrative shifting fully negative, liquidity draining completely, and smart money begins absorbing supply quietly. In Wyckoff terms, this trend aligns with selling climaxes, springs, and final shakeouts. This is where trends tend to terminate, not where they begin to collapse.
At this point, Wedson claims that downside risks are still present. However, it tends to be more limited and contained, as any further drops here are likely to be smaller in magnitude. During this period, a sharp move like a $15,000 shakeout remains on the table for Bitcoin, the kind that creates one final wave of panic across the market.
Despite how significant this drop could affect Bitcoin, Wedson stated that structurally, this resembles a late-stage fear. Over the next few weeks, sentiment is expected to remain depressed while BTC’s price moves sideways or slightly lower. Typically, this is the right time when the market feels the most hopeless, which ultimately triggers the shift.
In the meantime, the expert anticipates a gradual shift into bullish territory again while the broader market is still losing interest. A trend like this could mark the final 5 months of fear and disinterest in Bitcoin, followed by 5 months of steady accumulation by Bitcoin OG investors.
Investors’ Activity Hints At A Recovering Market
Despite Bitcoin’s persistent sideways price action, some indicators have flipped into positive territory once again. CW, a data analyst and verified author at CryptoQuant, has drawn attention to the BTC Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator, which shows the underlying market structure.
Currently, the metric is positioned at the borderline between a bull market and a bear market. However, after a period of indecision, the indicator has moved back to a bull market signal, suggesting a sign of recovery underneath the surface.
CW noted that the indicator is becoming increasingly confusing. Meanwhile, the most realistic signal here is that the balance of BTC whale investors is rising extremely fast.
