Amid the recent market recovery, Solana (SOL) has jumped roughly 10% from last week’s lows, reclaiming the $82 level and retesting a major resistance. However, some market observers have warned that the rally could be short-lived if the cryptocurrency doesn’t turn a key level into support in the coming days.
Solana Price In ‘Consolidation Trap’
On Thursday, Solana surged 2.5% to try to reclaim the $84 area after losing this area on Wednesday night. The altcoin has been trading between the $76-$92 levels since February, moving within the lower half of this range over the past two weeks.
Ali Martinez highlighted a structural pattern that has been “remarkably consistent” since October 2025. Notably, the analyst explained that Solana has been repeating a three-step cycle every time it has lost momentum over the past six months.
According to Martinez, the pattern begins with the reclaim of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is followed by the rapid failure to hold the 50-day SMA as support. Lastly, SOL enters the “consolidation trap”, a brief, sideways “complacency” period before the actual leg down starts.
As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency recorded this pattern in November 2025 and January 2026, when it dropped below the 50-day SMA and consolidated for weeks before the next major sell-off, ultimately resolving lower and reaching a new local bottom.
Solana moved above the 50-day SMA in mid-March, when it hit its local top of $97, and has since dropped below it. Now, the altcoin is in its consolidation phase, “drifting sideways” between $79-$81, and sitting below the key SMA near the $86 mark.
“If this pattern holds, this sideways movement is not ‘stabilization’—it is the coiling of a new leg down. Based on previous instances, a failure to reclaim the $86 level quickly could project a move toward the $52,” Martinez asserted.
SOL Breakdown Imminent?
Market observer Leviathan noted that Solana has retested the lower area of its local range seven times since February, and every bounce has gotten weaker after each retest.
At the time of writing, the price has been rejected from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that a retest and breakdown from the key $76-$80 support area could be next. “Historically, the more a support level gets tested, the weaker it becomes. Watch this level closely,” he asserted.
Analyst Crypto Lens shared a similar outlook, pointing to a potential bearish formation on SOL’s chart. Per the post, the cryptocurrency has been trading in a bearish flag pattern since early February, and broke down from the formation when it dropped below the $81 area in late March.
This structure also developed in late 2025, leading to a 54% correction after Solana broke down from the pattern. After the recent bounce, the altcoin is retesting the pattern’s lower boundary from support, which could turn this level into resistance if momentum doesn’t hold.
“This isn’t random price action, it’s a pattern,” the analyst warned, “If this continues, SOL could be heading toward the $45 zone.”
