Previous bear markets left scars that are hard to ignore. The 2017 crash wiped out more than 80% of Bitcoin’s value. The 2021 collapse took nearly 77%. So when a fresh wave of analysts began calling for a drop to $50,000, the warnings carried weight — at least on paper.
A Different Kind Of Cycle
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, said the $50,000 level was being eyed as the last major buying opportunity before any real recovery could take hold. A drop to that price, he said, would represent a “healthy cycle reset” given the pressure from broader economic forces and weak movement of capital into crypto.
But Ruck also raised a point that separates this downturn from past ones: Bitcoin is already down roughly 40% from its record high, and this time around, large institutions are involved in ways they simply weren’t before.
That changes the math. Prior crashes were driven mostly by retail traders — ordinary people buying and panic-selling. Institutional money behaves differently, and consistent buying pressure from that side of the market may be putting a floor under prices that didn’t exist in earlier cycles.
“There is a chance this cycle might not reach an idealized 60% drawdown,” Ruck said, pointing to what he called a distinctively macro-structured market environment.
Bitcoin: the big flush…
I don’t think we’ve had it yet
I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom
You can pray for it of coursebut it won’t help
Trend is still down
The few % bounces are tiny if you zoom out
I will reconsider this stance in case bull strength returns
It’s just…— Ivan on Tech
Head Trader @ Bullmania (@IvanOnTech) April 13, 2026
Trader and author Ivan Liljeqvist posted to X that Bitcoin had yet to experience what he called “the big flush.” He said he didn’t believe $60,000 marked the bottom, and that the overall trend remained pointed downward.
The small bounces seen along the way, he argued, looked minor against the bigger price picture. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar echoed that view, suggesting Bitcoin was entering a second bear phase that could push prices to $50,000 before any wider distribution of gains takes place.
THREE PHASES. BITCOIN ABOUT TO ENTERTHE SECOND.
Accumulation: done.
Manipulation: loading.
Distribution: $150K. Pending.$70K is the decision.
Hold it: manipulation is short.
Lose it: $50K first.They ran this playbook once already.
You watched it happen. pic.twitter.com/yJMAeA6Tfh— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 13, 2026
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Swings
Crypto prices don’t move in a vacuum. A temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran sent Bitcoin briefly above $75,000 — the kind of jump that happens when fear lifts, even for a moment.
US President Donald Trump announced the two-week pause in hostilities, and markets responded quickly. But the relief didn’t last.
Peace talks broke down over the weekend, and by Monday Bitcoin had slipped back below $71,000 after Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising consumer prices, reported in Friday’s CPI data, added further weight.
Bitcoin’s all-time high stands at $126,198, set in October 2025. At current prices around $72,500 to $74,600, that puts the drawdown at roughly 40% to 44% — deep, but still well short of the 60% collapse that some models suggest a full bear market requires.
BTC STILL LOOKS SUPER BEARISH HTF
Weekly short imbalances were filled and rn we can only go to 1M imbalance, which is ~$80K
Right after it, I am waiting for a final huge dump to one of my targets:
$59K or $50K
Either way last dump is coming
Notifs on, I’ll call exact bottom pic.twitter.com/twHr5VhxRr
— symbiote (@cryptosymbiiote) April 13, 2026
Analysts Split On What Comes Next
One analyst posting under the name “symbiote” called the chart “super bearish” on longer time frames, saying a final large drop to either $59,000 or $50,000 was still coming. Others are less certain the floor hasn’t already been set.
What makes this cycle harder to read is the mix of forces pulling in both directions. Institutional investment and ETF inflows provide steady demand. Global conflict, inflation data, and uncertain monetary policy cut against that. Neither side has clearly hit the proverbial bullseye.
Bitcoin touched a low of around $66,000 in early April before recovering. Whether that low holds — or whether the market has another leg down before it finds real footing — remains an open question that even the most watched voices in crypto can’t agree on.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
