On April 17th, Bitcoin rose by 2.77%, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz commercially open for the rest of its 10-day ceasefire with the US. With the market anticipating further upward movement, an on-chain analysis suggests a retracement could be the next event.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Imminent BTC Pullback
In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst MAC_D outlines a confluence of metrics signaling a possible price retracement. MAC_D highlights that, as Bitcoin grows, readings from the Bitcoin ETF: Daily Change In total Bitcoin Holdings have begun to decline.
For context, this metric tracks the daily change in the amount of Bitcoin that flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs. This, in turn, serves as a gauge of spot demand strength. Given this metric’s downturn, it might signal that spot demand is weakening as well. Furthermore, MAC_D points out the Realized Profit and Loss metric, which measures the total profits or losses actually locked in by investors. According to the analyst, this indicator reached its highest level on April 14th — a level last seen in February — suggesting intense profit-taking.
The Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow metric, which tracks the amount of Bitcoin entering the top 10 exchange wallets, also features in this analysis. Recently, large amounts of Bitcoin have been entering exchanges. Per the crypto expert, this suggests that the profits being realized are alongside transfers to exchanges. When a large volume of cryptocurrency (in this case, Bitcoin) is transferred to an exchange, it is typically a sign of incoming sell pressure. This is because transferred tokens are often moved with the intent of being sold, due to increased risk aversion among its investors, or as a result of mere profit-taking.
Interestingly, the futures market is also opposing the recent bullish momentum. The analyst reveals that Open Interest across exchanges has begun to diverge from recent highs. Hence, it is apparent that traders are not aggressively leveraging with bullish expectations being their motivation. In other words, the rally is not being strongly supported by speculative activity, which often plays a key role in sustaining extended upward moves. Ultimately, these on-chain signals make it clear that, while the Bitcoin price recently saw an impressive break, it lacks the relevant backing to sustain its growth.
Bitcoin Market Overview
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,202, up around 3% over the past 24 hours. On a monthly basis, the premier cryptocurrency is also up by roughly 8.47%, according to CoinMarketCap data.
