Short-term holders have nearly stepped away from the market. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the realized cap UTXO age bands for one-week to one-month holders dropped to 3.91% — a level last seen in October 2023, when Bitcoin was changing hands near $27,000.
That quiet, behind-the-scenes signal is now drawing attention from analysts who say it points to something bigger: Bitcoin may be deeply undervalued.
Bitcoin: Sentiment Has Shifted Sharply Since December
A joint survey by Coinbase Institutional Research and Glassnode polled 91 global investors between March 16 and April 7. The group included 29 institutions and 62 non-institutional participants. What they found marks a clear break from where things stood just months ago.
About 82% of institutional respondents and 70% of non-institutional respondents now classify the current market as a late bear or markdown phase. Back in December, only around one-third held that view. The shift happened fast.
Valuation opinions were just as pointed. Roughly 75% of institutions and 61% of non-institutions said Bitcoin is undervalued at current prices. Very few flagged it as overpriced.
Expectations around Bitcoin dominance also changed. The share of institutions expecting dominance to climb fell from 40% to 25%. A majority — about 54% — now expect it to hold near its current level of 58.1%, while 21% think it will slide.
Onchain Metrics Back The Undervaluation Argument
The survey findings don’t stand alone. Onchain data tells a similar story.
Analyst Woominkyu’s Bitcoin Combined Market Index, known as the BCMI, pulls together four separate metrics: MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and investor sentiment.
MVRV compares market value against realized value. NUPL tracks net unrealized profit and loss across all holders. SOPR measures whether coins are being sold at a gain or a loss. Together, they give a broad picture of both price and behavior.
The BCMI recently moved from 0.26 to 0.37 — a range that has historically lined up with periods of deep undervaluation. Its 90-day average is still trending lower, which signals that selling pressure hasn’t fully dried up.
BTC – Is It Approaching a Relatively Undervalued Zone?
“An interpretation based on historical data suggests that the market has entered a zone reasonably close to undervalued territory.” – By @DanCoinvestor pic.twitter.com/qiAkYP5M9l
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 11, 2026
But Woominkyu said the data suggests downside is becoming limited relative to long-term upside, and that the market is entering what he called a “value-accumulation zone.”
Analyst Crypto Dan made a similar observation in March. Based on the UTXO age band drop, he said Bitcoin is approaching undervalued territory, though a final bottom has not been confirmed.
Historical Patterns Point Toward A Potential Cycle Low
Reports indicate that whenever the one-week to one-month UTXO age band has hit levels like this since 2021, Bitcoin has typically found a cycle low within three to six months. That pattern doesn’t guarantee a repeat, but it gives the current setup some historical weight.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
