Will the MOU result in a pipeline from Alberta? Most polled don’t think so

Despite the fanfare that accompanied its signing, a majority of Albertans polled by Janet Brown Opinion Research for CBC News are not confident the memorandum of understanding between the federal and provincial governments will actually result in a new pipeline. 

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith signed the MOU in November, with both governments agreeing to take steps toward building a new bitumen pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast. 

The poll suggests 57 per cent of respondents are either not very or not at all confident the MOU will lead to a pipeline, while 37 per cent were very or somewhat confident it will. Six per cent were unsure.

The random survey of 1,200 Albertans was carried out between April 7 and April 22 by Trend Research, at the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research.

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The notion that dreams of a pipeline could be running on fumes does not surprise some energy analysts.

“The MOU is a pretty complicated agreement and there’s certainly a lot of conditions associated with building a West Coast pipeline,” said Jackie Forrest, executive director of ARC Energy Research Institute.

An April 1 deadline for several arrangements to be settled has already come and gone. The next date on the calendar is July 1 — the deadline set out by the MOU for Alberta to submit an application for the pipeline project to Ottawa’s Major Projects Office.

And there is a history of major projects falling through over the years, including Northern Gateway, Energy East, and the on-again, off-again Keystone XL (on Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed off on a proposed pipeline similar to KXL.)

Al Salazar, head of macro oil and gas research at Enverus, has a name for how some Albertans might be feeling.

“The battered pipeline optimism syndrome,” said Salazar, who is also energy columnist for CBC Radio’s Calgary Eyeopener.

“It’s a symptom of probably the better part of a decade or two of pipeline proposals that have been put forth and have failed to cross the line.”

Those most likely to have confidence in a pipeline share some things in common, said John Santos, data scientist at Janet Brown Opinion Research.

That includes people more likely to say they are impressed with Carney, and those who express stronger ties to Canada and against separation.

“Danielle Smith’s own boosters aren’t all that bullish that the MOU will produce a pipeline,” said Santos. “Which sort of makes sense, right? Because a lot of Danielle Smith’s popularity is predicated on her aggressive posturing with the federal government.”

Santos said there is also a segment who might almost want the MOU to fail, “because it just adds to their case that federalism cannot be made to work and that the only way for Alberta to get things done is to separate.”

Salazar says there are developments that could certainly boost confidence — like say, having a company express interest.

And he said there is an even stronger business case for the project now, given rising fuel prices and tightening oil supplies.

“There’s money on the table here and certainly there’s also political favour that’s also on the table here,” he said.

The poll also suggests a majority of respondents approve of Smith’s efforts to reset the province’s relationship with the federal government, much as was the case when the question was asked in 2025. 

Fifty-six per cent of respondents approve, while 36 per cent disapprove.

Those most likely to approve of Smith’s efforts are also most likely to be UCP supporters, and be impressed with both Smith and federal Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, according to the poll.

But the proportion of respondents who said they strongly approve dipped this year compared to last: dropping nine points, while those who only somewhat approve increased by 11 points. 

Santos says, again, part of that could be tied back to the MOU, with the disillusionment around it tempering some of the enthusiasm around Smith’s approach.

And he says the findings are interesting when compared to the question on pipeline confidence, given the MOU is a significant part of Smith’s current approach to Ottawa.

“But who agrees with one is very different from who agrees with the other, and the split is basically completely along political lines,” said Santos.

A further breakdown of the poll’s findings show a bit of a drop in strong approval among those in favour of separation when compared to 2025. But an overwhelming amount of pro-separatism respondents still said they approve of Smith’s efforts.

The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between April 7 to April 22, 2026, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 30 per cent landlines and 70 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 11.7 per cent.