Following its April rally, Bitcoin has settled into a tight range between $75,000 and $78,000. According to crypto analyst Kabuki, this movement may represent a familiar phase seen in previous market cycles that have preceded explosive gains.
Base Formation Signals Familiar Cycle Pattern
In an X post on May 2, Kabuki draws attention to a recurring structure observed in past bull cycles, specifically in 2021 and 2025. In these cases, Bitcoin spent a prolonged period moving sideways after an initial rally. This phase, often dismissed as indecisive, served as a base-formation zone where strong hands accumulated positions before the next leg up.
Bitcoin stuck at $75K-$78K for a reason
This isn't random. This is Bitcoin history repeating.
If you know the past, you know the future:
2017: Base formed → Parabolic expansion 2021: Base formed → Parabolic expansion 2026: Same structure playing out NOW
This… pic.twitter.com/YGSm0rbEVU
— Kabuki
(@kabukistory) May 2, 2026
In 2018, Bitcoin consolidated for months before breaking out into a parabolic run that culminated in its then-all-time high at $69,000 in 2021. A similar structure appeared in 2022, where a range-bound phase preceded the surge to new highs around $126,100. Fast forward to 2026, and the same pattern appears to be unfolding.
Bitcoin’s current range between $75,000 and $78,000 appears to be an accumulation phase, in which market participants absorb supply at relatively stable prices. However, what appears to be stagnation may actually be preparation for a price rally.
Bitcoin Target: $400,000
Building on this cyclical framework, Kabuki projects a long-term target of $400,000 for Bitcoin. While that figure may seem aggressive at first glance, it is based on the scale of previous expansions following similar base formations.
In 2018, Bitcoin exited its accumulation range, producing a 1,831.46% price increase that peaked at $69,000 in 2021. After leaving the buy zone in 2022, price acceleration was also exponential, resulting in a 651.63% gain that established the current all-time high. If the current range near $75,000–$78,000 serves as the foundation, Kabuki projects another 775.12% gain, which should result in a $400,000 price valuation by 2029
This projection is strongly supported by a broader market outlook, including asset maturity, institutional participation as reflected in ETF inflows, and broader adoption, likely encouraged by regulations such as the GENIUS Act and the highly anticipated CLARITY Act.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $78,379, reflecting a 0.43% gain in the last seven days. According to analysts at CoinCodex, general market sentiment has turned bullish, with the Fear & Greed Index moving into the neutral zone. These analysts expect Bitcoin to sustain its current rally, with price projections of $84,219 over the next five days.
