PEPE is trying to hold its place in the meme coin market after months of weaker momentum, but a new technical setup shows that the next move may be decided by a narrow support zone. The latest chart analysis shared by crypto analyst Lars Koostra on X shows the meme coin reacting from a demand area.
PEPE Holds Demand, But The TCT Model Still Warns Of Distribution
The analysis is built around a TCT model, which analyst Lars Koostra says has now been confirmed. The question now is whether it can defend the current demand point of interest or whether the token is setting up for a deeper bearish rotation back into range lows.
The technical chart shows PEPE trading around 0.00000400, with its price bouncing from what the analyst describes as the only demand POI currently preventing a full bearish rotation. This is the final support area keeping the structure from completing the downside move projected by the TCT model.
The TCT model points out that the meme coin has already shown signs of distribution near the upper part of the range. The price action previously moved into the higher supply area in late April but failed to break cleanly above it, confirming the analyst’s view that demand is below the current price.
Therefore, the recent bounce does not automatically invalidate the bearish structure. It only delays it until PEPE either breaks higher with strength or loses the support now holding the market together. Speaking of the recent bounce, the meme coin is currently trading with a 4.8% increase in the past 24 hours and a 5.5% increase in the past seven days.
Extreme Supply Could Decide Whether The Bounce Has Real Strength
The chart’s red projection shows PEPE possibly pushing higher into extreme supply before reversing lower. This upper resistance band visible on the chart is sitting in the $0.000004130 to $0.000004200 region.
This makes the extreme supply area the next major test for the meme coin. A weak reaction there would support the bearish TCT model and keep the range-low target around $0.0000037 alive. The analyst noted that if it retraces into extreme supply, they would look to refine an entry and add risk only after high-quality confirmations.
A stronger move above that zone, however, would begin to weaken the distribution case and lead to a reassessment of whether PEPE is building a larger recovery. At the time of writing, PEPE is trading at $0.000004268. On the other hand, the meme coin is still down by 47% on a one-year basis despite gaining more than 26% over the past month. That creates a mixed setup.
The monthly rebound shows traders are slowly moving into PEPE, but the larger decline shows that the token has not yet reclaimed its lost glory. The TCT distribution model says that PEPE may still need to complete a deeper liquidity move before any stronger recovery can develop.
