Bitcoin has now climbed nearly 30% since the US-Iran war began on February 28 — a run that has outpaced both gold and the S&P 500 even as the conflict continues to shake global markets.
A Week Of Potential Catalysts
Two events in the US Senate this week could add more fuel to that rally, according to 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen.
The first is a Monday vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair. The second is a Thursday markup session for the CLARITY Act in the Senate Banking Committee.
Thielen described the crypto legislation as the most significant of its kind in years, one that could bring long-awaited regulatory certainty to digital assets.
As for Warsh — widely seen as more hawkish on inflation than current Fed chair Jerome Powell — Thielen said his confirmation would clear away uncertainty rather than create it. Both events, he said, lean bullish for Bitcoin.
The backdrop to all this is a conflict that shows no sign of ending soon. The US-Iran war, which started after a US airstrike killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has rattled financial markets for the past 10 weeks.
One of the central flashpoints is the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes.
Oil climbed another 4.5% to $98.68 per barrel after Trump’s latest statement, adding pressure to an already strained economic picture.
Bitcoin’s Swing After Trump’s Post
On Sunday, Trump took to Truth Social to reject Iran’s counteroffer to a peace deal. Iran had been pushing for war reparations and the unfreezing of blocked financial assets — conditions Trump flatly dismissed.
Bitcoin initially slid on the news, dropping from $81,400 to $80,500 within 45 minutes of the post. But it didn’t stay down. Within three hours, the price had swung back above $82,000, breaking $81,000 on the way up and settling near $82,350.
Data shows that move wiped out over $60 million in short positions over a four-hour window.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added that the war won’t conclude until Iran’s uranium sites are fully dismantled, further dimming prospects of a near-term resolution.
Hopes Fade For Early End To The Conflict
Peace talks had been expected to make progress by Wednesday. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal ended that possibility for now.
The conflict, which began 10 weeks ago, has shown Bitcoin behaving differently from traditional assets — rising even as geopolitical tension deepens, oil surges, and ceasefire talks collapse.
Featured image from The Leaflet, chart from TradingView
