Bitcoin Is Playing Out The ‘Fakeout Theory’ Again, Here’s What To Expect

A crypto analyst has revealed that Bitcoin (BTC) is repeating a historical “fakeout” pattern that has led to new all-time highs each four-year cycle. According to the analyst, if this theory holds, this cycle could see the BTC price crash to new lows before initiating an upside recovery. While the chart structure mirrors this past trend, the crypto expert remains skeptical about its validity, especially given how strained the current market has become. 

Bitcoin Fakeout Theory Signals Major Correction

A pseudonymous crypto analyst known as Bee on X has presented a compelling Bitcoin price analysis, predicting the leading cryptocurrency’s next moves based on historical trends. Looking at his accompanying chart video, the analyst showed that BTC price action from its 2017 cycle, where it formed a peak, tracks to its current levels in 2026, alongside a projected path to a new high.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently playing out a fakeout theory that has repeated twice in the past. The first time this happened was in 2017, when the flagship cryptocurrency formed an all-time high above $20,000. Bee noted that this peak eventually flipped into support for the Bitcoin price after the cryptocurrency propelled to its next top in 2021. The process where a cycle peak becomes a critical support level is what the analyst described as the “fakeout theory.”

Notably, during the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin formed another top above $68,000, as seen on the analyst’s chart. A fakeout occurred right after, with the price plummeting below $20,000 once this top was reached. After the decline, the market flipped from bearish to bullish as BTC rallied again, reaching another ATH.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin reached a new cycle peak around October 2025, with its price soaring above $126,000. Following this top, a fakeout occurred once the BTC price crashed below $70,000 in early 2026. Now the analyst is predicting another crash to a final bottom. 

He believes that the market could dip into the $60,000 to $65,000 region first if the fakeout theory holds. After this initial correction, he expects Bitcoin to decline even further toward the $52,000 to $47,000 range, where it may find a final cycle bottom. Notably, the analyst acknowledged that while the historical fakeout theory is compelling, he does not believe that it will survive in the current cycle.

Analyst Projects BTC’s Next Move Above $100,000

Looking at the trajectory of the arrow on the chart, Bee believes Bitcoin is setting up for a major price breakout once it forms a cycle bottom. After hitting the projected downside target around $50,000, the chart points to an upper target near $110,000. 

This suggests that once the market fully resets, Bitcoin could enter a fresh bull market and potentially reclaim territory above $100,000. From the projected bottom price, that move would represent a more than 120% gain. Meanwhile, measured from BTC’s current price above $77,800, a run to $110,000 would signal a rally of more than 41%.