The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year are fading, according to TD Cowen, even after the bill cleared key legislative hurdles in the Senate.
While the measure successfully passed through the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee, a full Senate vote—and the final approval needed to send the bill to the finish line—now looks increasingly unlikely before year’s end.
CLARITY Act Momentum Hits New Wall
TD Cowen managing director Jaret Seiberg, writing in a Tuesday note from the firm’s Washington Research Group, said his team remains pessimistic that the CLARITY Act will be enacted this year.
In his view, the main challenge is political: whether Democrats can support the bill if it includes provisions aimed at addressing presidential conflicts of interest.
At the same time, Seiberg warned that Republicans could become more reluctant to advance the legislation if doing so requires them to vote against amendments intended to target or respond to Trump-related concerns.
Seiberg said the progress in the Senate Banking Committee earlier this month does not necessarily signal a broad agreement across parties. Although the committee advanced the bill despite objections from Democrats and banks, he described that outcome as shifting the fight to the full Senate rather than resolving the underlying disputes.
Seiberg also pointed to several Trump-related developments he says are making the political environment tougher for the CLARITY Act. One driver, he noted, is a legal case involving the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that has already been resolved.
Washington Tensions Rise
The dispute resulted in the creation of a $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund and permanently bars the IRS from auditing past tax returns for Trump, his family, and related companies.
Seiberg’s takeaway is that the fallout from that dispute is likely to further raise the temperature in Washington, making it harder to find consensus on legislation like the already delayed CLARITY Act.
Seiberg also cited a recent New York Times investigative report alleging that prediction markets and crypto-related interests may have influenced efforts aimed at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
He stressed that, as of his note, the claims have not been confirmed. Still, he pointed to a response from CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who told the New York Times that the agency is focused on major wrongdoing and is not “playing favorites.”
Another factor cited in the TD Cowen note involves government financial disclosures released earlier this month. Those reports indicated that roughly 3,600 stock trades were executed on Trump’s behalf during the first three months of 2026.
Seiberg argued that the surrounding controversy makes it more likely that lawmakers choose delay over action—especially as the midterm election approaches and the political calendar narrows the window for additional postponements.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
