Bitcoin is struggling below $75,000 as the market faces uncertainty that has persisted long enough to raise fundamental questions about the nature of the current weakness. The price action is frustrating for bulls who expected the recovery from the February lows to deliver more, and XWIN Research Japan has published an analysis that identifies the structural reason the recovery has stalled in a way that goes considerably deeper than technical resistance or short-term sentiment.
The most important market theme since May 2026 has been a divergence that most participants have noticed but fewer have fully explained: stocks are near highs while Bitcoin is struggling, despite both being classified as risk assets that should theoretically move in the same direction under the same macro conditions.
XWIN Research Japan’s explanation for that divergence is structural rather than incidental. The engines driving stock prices and Bitcoin prices have separated. Today’s equity rally is supported by AI-related earnings growth, capital expenditure from companies like NVIDIA, aggressive share buyback programs, and continued ETF inflows into equity products. Investors are buying stocks because future profit growth is visible, quantifiable, and being delivered in quarterly earnings reports.
Bitcoin has no earnings and no cash flow. Its price depends on something different entirely — and that something is currently moving in the wrong direction.
Bitcoin Liquidity Is Leaving
The XWIN Research Japan report identifies the demand deterioration with data that removes ambiguity about what is driving the divergence. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded large outflows during the second half of May — the institutional demand channel that provided the most reliable source of new capital has reversed direction precisely when the price most needs it to hold.
On-chain data confirms the same story from a different angle: active addresses declining, transaction activity falling, and network participation slowing. CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin active addresses trending lower since 2024 even as the S&P 500 continues making highs.
The issue is not simply price weakness — it is weakening network participation occurring simultaneously. In strong Bitcoin cycles, rising prices and growing user activity reinforce each other. That dynamic is currently running in reverse.
The structural contrast with equities defines the problem precisely. Stocks rise because companies generate profits. Bitcoin rises when new liquidity and new participants enter the market. Capital is currently flowing toward the former and away from the latter.
The recovery conditions are specific. Bitcoin needs stronger ETF inflows, rising on-chain activity, an improving Coinbase Premium, and a weaker dollar. Stock market strength alone satisfies none of those requirements. The real question is not whether equities remain strong — it is whether new demand returns to Bitcoin itself.
Bitcoin Tests Major Support Zone As Sellers Press Their Advantage
Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure, with the price now sitting near $73,600 after losing momentum from the May rally that briefly pushed BTC above $82,000. The daily chart shows a clear rejection from the 200-day moving average, which remains overhead near the $80,000 region and continues to define the broader bearish structure that has been in place since late 2025.
The most important area on the chart is the support zone between $72,000 and $74,000. This region acted as resistance throughout March and April before eventually breaking higher in mid-April, making it a key area of former resistance now being tested as support. Bitcoin is currently attempting to hold this zone while trading directly around its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, creating a critical decision point for the market.
Volume remains relatively subdued compared to the capitulation event seen in February, suggesting that panic selling has not yet emerged despite the recent decline. However, buyers have also failed to show aggressive accumulation, leaving the market vulnerable to additional downside if support breaks.
A daily close below $72,000 would significantly weaken the current structure and expose the February-March demand zone around $65,000. Conversely, if bulls successfully defend current levels, Bitcoin could attempt another recovery toward $77,000 and eventually retest the $80,000-$82,000 resistance region where sellers recently regained control.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
