After hitting its cycle high last August, the Cardano price has continued in a downward slope toward lows not seen since 2024. Despite the calls of an altseason early into May, the ADA token has erased all the gains realized at the beginning of the month. Interestingly, the current Cardano price structure suggests the altcoin may be at risk of further downside in the coming months if it closes below a significant support level in May.
ADA Price Could Fall 78% If This Support Is Broken
In a May 30th post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Cardano price has been hovering around a make-or-break level over the past couple of weeks. Looking at the highlighted monthly chart, the altcoin is at risk of closing the month of May below a major historical support level.
As shown in the chart below, the Cardano price has been trending within a multi-year channel formation since 2021. After reaching the upper boundary of the channel at $1.195 in early 2025, the cryptocurrency’s price has been in a steady decline, losing a significant support level around $0.544 last November.
Now, as Martinez identified, the next definitive floor in sight for the Cardano price is around $0.247, which has acted as major support in the past. In fact, this support level kick-started the last rally that saw the price of ADA reach $1.195.
However, the Cardano price has drifted beneath this support level over the past few days, falling to as low as $0.232. With the end of May rapidly approaching, it would be interesting to see whether the ADA candlestick eventually closes below the $0.247 floor over the next day.
Martinez wrote in the X post:
As the monthly close approaches, maintaining a position below $0.247 alters the immediate market structure, suggesting a deeper valuation phase is underway.
According to the crypto analyst, if the Cardano price sustains its close beneath this historical support level, the next “high-conviction macro targets for long-term accumulation” lie around $0.113 and $0.051. Essentially, investors could see the price drop by nearly 78% (from the current price point) if ADA remains below $0.247.
However, it is worth noting that the altcoin could bounce back to around $0.544 if this major channel support holds and demand returns to the crypto market.
Cardano Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of ADA stands at around $0.237, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.
