Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, sitting at around $61,700, is the line the market is watching most closely right now.
That level has marked the bottom of every major Bitcoin bear cycle going back to 2015, and it held again this week — at least for now.
A Classic Bottom Signal — Or Just A Pause?
The selloff dragged Bitcoin down to around $61,300 before buyers pushed the price back up past $64,750, a recovery of more than 5%.
Reports say the rebound came alongside news that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire, though the price action itself was already being shaped by a massive liquidation event.
Over $740 million in BTC positions were wiped out in a 24-hour window, according to data from CoinGlass. Long traders took the bulk of the hit, with more than $623 million in bullish bets liquidated as the price fell.
Bear Flag Still Looms
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a bear flag breakdown still in progress. The pattern points to a potential drop into the $50,000–$52,000 range, and the setup has gained weight from rising trading volumes on the downside move.
BTC has so far failed to reclaim the upper trend line of the flag. That failure keeps the bearish scenario technically intact, even after Thursday’s bounce.
Some traders are reading the move differently. Analyst ZordXBT pointed to the long lower wick on Bitcoin’s candle as a sign that buyers came in hard near the lows. Trader RidaaXBT called for a short-term relief bounce toward the $69,000–$70,000 range, arguing that the liquidation wave may have cleared out enough near-term selling pressure to allow a recovery.
Just like that, BTC dumped to the 61k level, which is most likely the local bottom for now.
Expecting a relief bounce from here, with a potential move back toward the 69k–70k region. https://t.co/q5VGRG2Id1 pic.twitter.com/83U7H7Phog
— Ridaa (@RidaaXBT) June 4, 2026
Not Everyone Is Convinced
Not all market watchers are buying the optimism. Trader Hitman42.eth warned that bulls may be walking into a trap, suggesting the bounce could lure in new long positions before another leg down.
everyone cheering this $3k bitcoin:native bounce is completely ignoring the graveyard they just walked over.
$600m in longs just got vaporized in 60 minutes flat. we tapped $61k right above the february lows and bounced.
catching a falling knife after a structural flush is… pic.twitter.com/5QpE8Vv8Rc
— hitman42.eth (@ihitman42) June 4, 2026
The 200-week moving average remains the key dividing line. As long as BTC holds above $61,700, the bear flag breakdown is not confirmed. A convincing recovery from that level would put $70,000 back in play as the next meaningful price target.
Bitcoin has tested the 200-week average at major lows before — in 2018 and again during the March 2020 crash — and bounced sharply each time.
Whether this week’s touch of that level marks a similar turning point, or just a brief pause before a deeper drop, remains an open question.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
