Bitcoin Bull Turn Hinges On US Debt Wall, Real Vision Says

Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts says Bitcoin is moving into a more attractive long-term setup, but a major US Treasury refinancing wall may still stand between the market and a durable bullish reversal.

In a post on X, Coutts said Bitcoin’s long-term technical backdrop is beginning to resemble the kind of structure that can precede a cycle bottom. “I’ll be the first to turn bullish on Bitcoin when the long-term technicals hit exhaustion and the trend turns,” he wrote. “I’ve argued Q2/Q3 would mark the bottom based on historical bear-market structures. Its playing out that way. The relative setup is approaching very attractive levels. The asset is in the long-term accumulation zone, imo.”

US Debt Refinancing Wall May Pressure Bitcoin

The issue, in Coutts’ view, is not simply Bitcoin’s chart. It is the macro plumbing around it.

He pointed to 2027, when the US faces $3.67 trillion in coupon maturities, a figure he said is 36% above the 2020–2025 average. The refinancing burden reflects the repricing of Covid-era debt issued when rates were near zero into a market where rates are now in the 4% to 5% range.

For Bitcoin and other risk assets, the concern is whether current liquidity conditions can absorb that level of issuance without stress in the Treasury market. Coutts argued that liquidity remains a constraint, particularly as capital has continued to rotate away from crypto since late 2025.

“Retail and insto flows have been rotating out of Bitcoin and crypto since Q4 2025,” he said. “Every marginal unit of liquidity has flowed into AI buildout assets. That makes sense. Capital flows to where it’s treated best. Right now, the capital allocation argument sits with AI equities and commodities. On-chain activity is back at multi-year lows.”

That rotation matters because Bitcoin’s bull phases have historically depended not only on internal crypto positioning, but also on broader liquidity expansion and risk appetite. Coutts’ point is that Bitcoin may be entering a structurally attractive zone at the same time liquidity remains scarce and competing asset classes are absorbing the available capital.

He also pushed back against the market’s focus on IPO issuance, arguing that the larger issue is the government refinancing burden and the ability of the financial system to intermediate it. “While the market fixates on IPO issuance,” he wrote, “what concerns me about all risk assets is that markets ex-crypto don’t seem bothered by the fact that current liquidity levels can’t easily absorb this refi supply.”

The complication is the Fed’s balance sheet. Coutts noted that Kevin Warsh wants a smaller balance sheet, adding another potential constraint if policymakers try to roll a large maturity wall through a system with reduced central bank liquidity.

“Yes, they will continue to stuff the short end and monetise through the banks,” Coutts said, adding that stablecoins are likely to play an “increasingly important role.” But he warned that rolling $3.67 trillion of maturities through a contracting Fed balance sheet “without a bond market accident would be among the most impressive acts of fiscal/monetary policy management in a generation.”

The implication for Bitcoin is nuanced. Coutts is not dismissing the bottoming case. He is arguing that the market may still need a macro trigger before the next sustained advance can take hold. In his framework, Bitcoin is likely to sense a shift in Fed-side liquidity before other assets, but that shift may not arrive until stress appears in Treasuries.

“I don’t see how they do it without far more Fed-side liquidity,” he wrote. “Bitcoin will detect it first. But there’s still an uncomfortable distance to travel. Treasuries will need to start misbehaving before the policy needle moves. That’s the tricky part.”

At press time, BTC traded at $63,196.