As the XRP price attempts to rebound from its recent lows, Glassnode has shared key on-chain metrics pointing to weakening momentum and “intense capitulation.”
XRP Profit/Loss Ratio Falls To Lowest Levels Since 2024
On Tuesday, market intelligence platform Glassnode revealed that XRP is flashing warning signals, with key on-chain indicators pointing to widespread capitulation and decreasing network activity.
In an X post, Glassnode researchers highlighted that the 90-day moving average (MA) of the altcoin’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has fallen to an area historically associated with deeper downtrends and periods of market capitulation.
Notably, the key metric has dropped to 0.38, its lowest level since 2024, meaning that for every dollar of losses realized in the market, only 38 cents in profit are being taken. This marks a significant reversal from the 2025 peak, when the ratio surged to 50, indicating profit-takers outpaced loss-sellers by a factor of 50.
That dynamic has now fully inverted, Glassnode affirmed, adding that a ratio this low suggests that most participants moving XRP are exiting their positions at a loss, which is “a hallmark of intense capitulation.”
In addition, the blockchain analytics firm pointed out that network activity has declined significantly. According to the data, the 90-day average of total transaction fees paid on the XRP network has fallen from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to just 500 XRP, representing a 91.5% drop.
“A drop of this magnitude is not a fee market adjustment. It reflects a near-total contraction in organic transaction demand on the network since the speculative peak,” Glassnode affirmed.
The drop in these indicators suggests investor confidence has weakened, and the market has shifted to reduced speculative appetite with subdued participation.
Is XRP’s Bottom Near?
Over the past two weeks, XRP’s price has retraced nearly 15%, falling to its lowest levels since November 2024. Amid this performance, analyst ChartNerd noted that the cryptocurrency’s bear markets have historically lasted 400-790 days with 85-96% drops.
Currently, the altcoin has only corrected for approximately 350 days, with a 71% retracement from the July highs. However, “the duration and % depth of these bears are diminishing over time; therefore, the territory for marking a historical bottom between now and EOY is fast approaching,” he stated.
He also observed that the altcoin closed below its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week, which could also signal that the bottom may be on the horizon. As he explained, during prior cycles, a structural bottom formed between 8 and 29 weeks after the first weekly close below this SMA, suggesting that XRP could begin forming its bottom in the coming months, if history repeats.
Meanwhile, market watcher Ali Martinez noted that XRP could be mirroring the same pattern it has repeated since 2018, as it may be approaching its largest buying zone in the last eight years.
“For nearly a decade, every touch of this rising trendline has marked a major turning point, sending XRP back toward the $3 resistance,” the analyst stated, adding that the cryptocurrency is currently approaching this trendline again, with support sitting between the $0.70 and $0.90 levels.
If this zone holds, a rally back to $3 becomes “a realistic scenario.” Moreover, if XRP finally breaks above the eight-year resistance, around $3.30, the next macro target may be between $8 and $13, the analyst concluded.
