Three cryptocurrency wallets collectively generated $24.25 million in profit from World Cup prediction markets before routing their proceeds to the same Binance deposit address, raising questions about whether a single trader controlled the accounts.
On June 21, blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain identified the wallets as mintblade, GRIMDRIP, and EndlessFate. The accounts recorded 13 winning positions from 16 settled World Cup bets, then stopped trading and removed their remaining funds, the platform said.
Mintblade generated $9.24 million after winning five positions without a recorded loss. GRIMDRIP earned $7.6 million from two winning trades, while endlessFate made $7.41 million after correctly predicting six of nine outcomes.
All three wallets transferred their proceeds to Binance using the deposit address 0xB08B…317D, Lookonchain said. A common exchange deposit route can indicate that accounts belong to the same person or organization because exchanges typically assign individual deposit addresses to customers.
The transactions, however, do not identify who operated the wallets or show how the bets were selected. The shared address and trading record alone do not prove that the accounts received nonpublic information.
Still, the addresses’ trading pattern attracted attention because the accounts stopped placing bets after recording the profits and withdrew their funds.
Onchain analyst Specter said other wallets had displayed similar trading patterns since the World Cup began, although the analyst did not provide evidence linking those accounts to the three identified by Lookonchain.
It should be noted that these large profits do not necessarily indicate misconduct. Prediction-market users can build substantial positions when liquidity is available, and bettors taking the other side of heavily favored outcomes can receive large payouts when an upset or draw occurs.
However, the absence of public identities makes it difficult to determine whether unusually successful traders relied on analysis, accepted high levels of risk, or obtained information unavailable to other market participants.
Neither Polymarket nor Binance had publicly confirmed Lookonchain’s findings as of press time.
World Cup prediction markets attract billions
The activity comes as the expanded 48-team World Cup turns sports prediction markets into a major venue for speculative trading.
More than $5 billion had been traded on World Cup contracts across Polymarket’s international exchange and Kalshi during the tournament’s opening stages, based on an analysis of platform records and blockchain data.
Polymarket’s contract on which country will win the tournament reached about $3 billion in cumulative volume by press time, making it the platform’s largest sports market.
The company listed hundreds of additional contracts covering individual matches, group winners, goal totals, player performances, and tournament awards.
Speaking on these numbers, Dara Campbell, a senior executive at Hashgraph Ventures, said:
“Everyone knew this World Cup would catapult prediction markets to another level. But the numbers are smashing expectations.”
Meanwhile, this surge has produced several multimillion-dollar winners and losses.
For context, CryptoSlate previously reported that a Polymarket account called fishalive made about $9 million after committing roughly $4.2 million to two positions against Spain in its match with Cape Verde. One of those trades involved about $427,000 wagered on Spain failing to win at an implied probability of roughly 9%.
Spain’s scoreless draw caused that position to pay approximately $4.7 million. A second position tied to Cape Verde covering a 2.5-goal spread produced another large payout.
The size of those trades and the account’s limited history prompted speculation online, though no public evidence has shown that the bettor possessed advance knowledge of the result.
Insider concerns follow market growth
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts that settle according to real-world events. Prices are commonly interpreted as the market’s assessment of the probability that an outcome will occur.
Supporters argue that financial incentives can produce useful forecasts by combining information held by many participants.
Critics say the same structure can reward people who trade on confidential information, particularly when contracts involve government decisions, corporate announcements, or events that a small group can influence.
As a result, Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest prediction market platforms, introduced additional restrictions this year after several politically sensitive trades renewed scrutiny of insider activity.
Polymarket’s rules prohibit people from trading on markets when they possess confidential information or can influence the result. Kalshi has imposed restrictions on athletes, political candidates, and other participants connected to listed events.
US lawmakers have also considered more than a dozen proposals addressing prediction markets. The measures include restrictions on sports contracts, political trading, markets tied to war and death, and the use of campaign funds to place bets.
However, none of them has made significant progress toward becoming law as of press time.
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