Quebec’s population is shifting — and not every region will grow the same way

Quebec’s population is expected to change significantly over the next quarter century, but not every region will experience those changes in the same way.

New projections from the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) suggest population growth will become increasingly uneven across the province.

While some regions are expected to continue attracting residents, others — including Montreal — could see its population shrink if current demographic trends continue.

The projections reflect broader demographic challenges facing Quebec, including lower birth rates and an aging population.

According to the ISQ’s reference scenario, the Capitale-Nationale region is expected to record the strongest long-term growth through 2051, followed by the Chaudière-Appalaches region.

Quebec City’s metropolitan area and the Drummondville metropolitan area are also projected to have some of the province’s highest population increases.

Across Quebec, the outlook varies considerably by region.

Areas surrounding Montreal, including the Laurentians, Lanaudière and Montérégie regions, are also expected to continue growing, reflecting the ongoing movement of residents toward suburban communities.

In contrast, the administrative region of Montreal is projected to experience one of the weakest performances.

The latest projections suggest the island’s population could decline by roughly 4.5 per cent between 2021 and 2051, while some more remote regions, including the Côte-Nord, are also expected to experience a decline over the longer term.

Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, a demographer with the ISQ, says it’s important to understand what those numbers represent.

“These are projections, not predictions,” he said. “We’re simply extending today’s demographic trends into the future.”

The projections are based on several factors, including fertility rates, deaths and different types of migration. According to Fleury-Payeur, migration remains the most influential factor in determining how population evolves across Quebec.

Immigration within the province is increasingly spreading beyond Montreal, a trend the report says has become more pronounced over the past decade.

“People often come to Montreal for school or work,” Fleury-Payeur explained.

“Later, when they’re looking to buy a home or start a family, many move to the suburbs or return to their region of origin.”

That pattern has existed for decades and is one of the main drivers behind the projections, he said.

The latest projections also assume the Quebec government will reduce the number of temporary residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers, over the next several years.

Even as population growth slows — or declines — in some areas, the housing demand is still expected to increase.

This comes as some parts of Quebec are already facing an affordability crisis.

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Fleury-Payeur says the explanation behind why housing demands will remain high despite the demographics lies in Quebec household changes.

As the population ages, more people live alone or in collective housing such as seniors’ residences and long-term care homes, he says. That means more housing units are needed even if the overall number of residents remains stable or declines.

“It’s a mechanical effect of the way households are composed,” he said.

Fleury-Payeur cautions that the projections are not meant to forecast exactly what will happen. Changes to immigration policies, economic conditions or demographic behaviour could all alter the province’s trajectory.

“No one has a crystal ball,” he said. “Our role is to show what the future could look like if today’s trends continue.”