Alberta has long been seen as a province with an economic advantage â the wealthiest in Canada in terms of GDP per capita, rich in natural resources and no provincial sales tax.
But not all Albertans are feeling that prosperity.
Albertans frustrated with Ottawa point to a “lost decade” marred by unstable oil prices, cancelled pipeline projects and unemployment.
Morad Rizkalla, a retired petroleum engineer who spent nearly 40 years working in Alberta’s energy sector, says cancelled pipelines have cost Alberta and Canada economic opportunities.
“We’re like 20 years behind here,” he said.
Years of economic frustration have helped fuel the province’s separation debate, which is culminating in a vote this month to decide if Alberta should pursue independence.
“Over the past 10 years, the fact that Alberta has underperformed economically has probably given a bit more momentum … to the movement and a bit more new support,” said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist with Alberta-based Servus Credit Union.
When oil prices crashed in 2014, investment in oil and natural gas projects plunged and the province fell into a recession in 2015 and 2016.
While the economy eventually recovered, the energy industry changed. Oil companies became more efficient and construction of major projects that once drove investment and job creation became harder to justify.Â
St-Arnaud says Albertans are still feeling the impact.Â
“We’ve seen the purchasing power of Albertans being lower. So it’s 10 per cent lower now than it was in 2014,” he said.
“That decline was sudden in 2015-2016, but then it has been stagnating since. So for the average Albertan, they’re looking at their own situation and [thinking], well, I’m not getting ahead.”
Alberta’s unemployment rate has tracked above the national average since 2016, according to Statistics Canada, while average weekly earnings have struggled to keep pace with inflation over the same time.
Despite a decade of economic headwinds, there is plenty of optimism in Alberta’s energy sector in 2026 as oil prices have reached $100 US per barrel again. A series of major projects are also in the works including the Pacific Link pipeline and LNG Canada Phase 2, in addition to record oilsands production.
The federal government has signalled support for Alberta’s oil development by ending Canada’s consumer carbon tax and the oilpatch emissions cap, but voters like Rizkalla haven’t forgotten setbacks of the previous Liberal government.
“If something like the Northern Gateway and Energy East were built, they would have been just coming on now. Here we are in another oil boom and there would have been a huge impact on Canada â not just on Alberta, but on Canada and its GDP, unemployment all across the country.”
Rizkalla says he plans to vote for the option on the Oct. 19 ballot that would direct Alberta to begin the process to hold a binding referendum on separation.
Rizkalla wants his vote to send a message to Ottawa to negotiate on issues such as equalization, Alberta’s political representation in Parliament and access to markets.
But Rizkalla says he hasn’t looked closely at the practicalities of separation â or the potential cost of forming a new nation, which some experts say could cost tens of billions.
Some of the financial pressures facing Alberta would remain, regardless of its constitutional status.
Oil prices are determined by the rise and fall of global markets. Even with a return to skyhigh oil prices, companies have become more selective about investing billions of dollars into new projects.
In recent years, reinvestment in Alberta’s oilsands has been a fraction of what it was before 2014.
Alberta would also still need to get its oil and natural gas to customers outside its borders.
“There’s little doubt that Alberta has the economic ability to be on its own, in my opinion. But if you add in the uncertainty around Alberta being landlocked, that’s a significant issue,” said Martin Pelletier, senior portfolio manager at Calgary-based Trivest Wealth.Â
An independent Alberta would also have to determine pensions, currency, banking, taxation and trade.
Prominent voices for separation maintain Alberta would be better off economically on its own and say any outstanding issues could be resolved through negotiations with its neighbours.
“Our view is we can become independent, we can operate as an independent country and we can be successful financially,” said Dennis Kalma, co-lead of independence organization Alberta Transition Council.
Canada has been through separation debates before.
St-Arnaud lived in Montreal during the 1995 Quebec referendum and later in London during Britain’s Brexit vote.
“In the case of Alberta, similar to Brexit, a lot of the reason for holding a referendum is more political than kind of social and cultural, as it was in Quebec. In Quebec, it was clear â let’s create a French-speaking nation,” he said.
Former British prime minister David Cameron, who called the 2016 Brexit referendum and campaigned against leaving the European Union, wouldn’t necessarily draw the same comparison.Â
“Brexit was about whether we wanted to stay in a trade association with an element of political union. Canada is not a trade association with an element of political union. Canada is an amazing country with an incredible history,” said Cameron while speaking at an energy conference in Calgary last month.
Brexit, 10 years later: What a regret-fuelled British town can teach Canada about referendums
Still, Brexit showed how complicated a breakup can be. “Leave” voters have since expressed regrets about rising food prices, border issues and political polarization.
“It’s going to look like a divorce,” said St-Arnaud. “It’s going to be a long argument, a lot of lawyers involved and it’s going to take a long time.”
Former British Prime Minister David Cameron drew on his own referendum experience during a visit to Calgary on Sept. 28, saying there is never a guarantee what the results are going to be. (Josh McLean/CBC)
Independence supporters have pushed back on Brexit comparisons.Â
Lawyer Keith Wilson, who is also an advocate for separation with the third-party advertiser Let Alberta Decide, says the situation is “fundamentally different.”
“Brexit was about the U.K. moving away from its largest market, being Europe,” he said in June. “Alberta independence is about Alberta moving closer to its largest market and the largest market in the world, the United States.”Â
There have been varying estimates on the cost of Alberta separating.
Late last month, the Alberta Transition Council (ATC) released a budget and costing plan estimating one-time transition expenses of $5 billion, while predicting an independent Alberta would have a potential budget surplus of between $22.2 to $32.1 billion each year.
Alberta separation group releases report touting affordable transition to independence
Establishing independent Alberta could cost up to $170B over 5 years: report
A University of Calgary School of Public Policy report commissioned by the Alberta government predicts the cost of establishing a new country could range between $50 billion to $170 billion over a five-year period. The report found total provincial debt could skyrocket to between $324.1 billion to $442.3 billion.
Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta and a member of the report’s advisory panel, says there’s a lot of uncertainty.
“At the end of the day, it all affects our pockets,” said Legge, who represents 130 business leaders in the province.
“I think that’s a very financially challenging and risky gamble for all Albertans because nothing would be in our control.”
But for now, he says the debate doesn’t appear to be impacting business decisions.
“None of them have put anything on pause. None of them have said we’re going to wait until we see what happens on Oct. 19.”
Legge says that could change if Alberta moves toward independence.
