After flipping a typically conservative blue stronghold in south Calgary to NDP orange, MLA-elect Kyle Campbell attributed the result to voters trusting his party’s vision on bread-and-butter election issues.
But some conservative voices are tying the UCP’s loss to the upcoming referendum question on Alberta independence.
Campbell won a close race Monday to represent Calgary-Shaw in the Alberta legislature. He received roughly 47 per cent of the vote, finishing just under 600 votes ahead of the UCP’s Mike Derry, according to unofficial results from Elections Alberta.
While door-knocking in the area, Campbell said he heard from longtime conservatives who said they couldn’t support the UCP because of their focus on the upcoming referendum. He added that most voters were more concerned about issues like health care access, overcrowded schools or the rising cost of living, which he argued the UCP have not improved enough since taking power in 2019.
“People could just look back at the last seven years and understand where the promises deviate from the action, and I think it’s being felt so acutely right now,” said Campbell.
“Albertans want leaders who will stand up for Canada, and focus on the challenges families are facing here at home.”
The Calgary-Shaw byelection was held just over a month ahead of an Oct. 19 provincial referendum that will include a question about whether Alberta should stay in Canada or commence the legal process to hold a binding referendum on separation.
Monday’s result marks just the second time the New Democrats have won Calgary-Shaw. The party’s only other victory in the riding came in 2015 as part of its “orange wave” into power, in a close three-way race where the New Democrats finished fewer than 200 votes ahead of each of the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties.
The NDP then proceeded to lose the seat by nearly 10,000 votes in 2019. Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said the byelection victory showed that heading into the next provincial election, there are no safe conservative seats in Calgary.
“Suddenly, all of these places are in play for the Alberta New Democrats,” said Nenshi.
“The core concerns of the people of Calgary-Shaw are the core concerns of all Albertans, and the government’s not delivering on them.”
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The Progressive Tories’ Kyle Joseph finished third with roughly nine per cent of the vote in the party’s first election since rebranding away from its Alberta Party name. Alberta Liberal Leader John Roggeveen finished fourth place with about four per cent of the vote.
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The Calgary-Shaw seat was vacated when former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz resigned. She was first elected in 2019, and later ran unsuccessfully for the party leadership in 2022. She announced her resignation late last year to seek new career opportunities.
Voter turnout in the byelection was roughly 38 per cent.
Elections Alberta will confirm official results by Sept. 24.
The UCP’s loss in Calgary-Shaw primarily stemmed from the Progressive Tories splitting the conservative vote, along with low turnout overall, said Premier Danielle Smith’s press secretary Sam Blackett.
“In five weeks, the referendum vote will be over, and we’re confident Albertans will be ready to move forward and fight for a stronger Alberta within a united Canada,” Blackett said via email.
“It’s more important than ever that Alberta conservatives remain united to avoid an economically ruinous NDP government.”
Calgary-Shaw’s voter turnout was similar to what recent Alberta byelections have recorded. In last June’s trio of byelections, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills recorded the highest voter turnout at about 39 per cent. The Lethbridge-West byelection in late 2024 recorded a 36-per-cent turnout.
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To former Alberta premier Jason Kenney, Calgary-Shaw’s flip is linked to “patriotic Canadians” who are upset about the separatist referendum question. He argued it’s really Alberta’s separatist movement that’s splitting the conservative vote.
“Folks planning to vote to ‘send a message’ by starting the separation process: please take note of the NDP’s win tonight in the most conservative part of urban Canada,” Kenney said in a post on X.
“A vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election, and for the Liberal Party of Canada to win far more Alberta seats.”
Kenney represented southern Calgary ridings at both the provincial and federal level during his political career.
Dan McLean, the city councillor for Ward 13 in Calgary, represents many Calgary-Shaw residents. He said that, as a conservative, he was worried the UCP may lose the byelection because of the upcoming referendum.
“This is a warning sign for the party to get together, to work together in a broad-based, common sense coalition,” said McLean.
The two-term councillor ran for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Shaw, losing to Derry. He argued his previous electoral success in the area could have helped the party this week.
The byelection showed Calgary will have no safe seats in the next provincial election, Mayor Jeromy Farkas said. Farkas argued the UCP has focused too much on fringe issues, and alienated some conservative supporters with the push toward voting on separatism.
“Calgary is going to be the make-or-break for either of these two main provincial parties in the upcoming general election,” said Farkas. “It goes to show that you cannot take Calgary and you cannot take Calgary voters for granted.”
Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams said she was struck to hear UCP candidate Mike Derry talking about health care and education from the start of his campaign, while his party took criticism for not responding more effectively to the same issues.
“The campaign was about the issues that are priorities for Albertans, but the government’s focus has not been there, and that I think put the UCP candidate at a bit of a disadvantage,” Williams said to CBC’s The Calgary Eyeopener on Tuesday.
Monday’s race was Derry’s to lose given the riding’s conservative base, said Williams, and the result represented a huge win for the NDP. She said the NDP has to feel the result reflects the work they’ve done on the campaign trail and to challenge the UCP government.
Williams added that the premier must know polling shows the referendum is unpopular and that she’s facing criticism for how she’s campaigned on the issue.
“She’s got to be alive to the controversy that the referendum is generating and that this, to some degree, is her responsibility,” said Williams.
Ahead of a provincial election scheduled for next year, Williams said she’ll be watching to see how far-reaching the October referendum’s unpopularity will be. She said the Calgary-Shaw byelection could be a sign of shifting political support in Alberta, or a vote to send a message to the government without changing the government.
