Over the last year, a steady drumbeat of polling has found again and again that most Albertans oppose separation — but based on fundraising and online chatter, you might not know that.
In a month, Albertans will head to the polls to vote on the future of the province, and the separatists occupy an outsize share of the spotlight, having raised three times the money and dominating the online conversation by as much as eight to one.
The pro-Canada side, meanwhile, remains divided, thanks largely to election finance rules that prevent collaboration, and worries about complacency. More than one federalist organizer has said that the time for persuasion is over. After an emotional and hotly-contested few months, most Albertans have dug in their heels on a position, federalists say.
The challenge now? Getting people to actually vote.
“I think the federalist side in this referendum campaign has hit a point of real unease,” says Avnish Nanda, the spokesperson for Our Alberta Advantage, which launched a new campaign to get out the vote this week. Called 5x for Canada, it features a series of tongue-in-cheek videos designed to equip people to get their friends to cast a ballot. (Slogan: Votemaxxing for Canada.)
“The separatists are just everywhere,” Nanda said.
Polling might cap support for independence at about a quarter of the province, but if a bigger proportion of separatists show up, the math gets dicey, he pointed out.
“Even if they don’t win outright, if the separatists get 30 per cent of the vote, I think Alberta is forever changed.”
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Making the case for Canada is a patchwork of groups and individuals, including former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, who, along with volunteers, has spent over a year driving a maple leaf-emblazoned RV almost 40,000 kilometres around the province.
There’s a team of academics and former politicians working as a “pop-up think-tank” under the name Lead Not Leave, and Conservatives for Canada, the campaign launched by the federal party to target their own supporters. Polling suggests right-leaning voters are more likely to have separatist sympathies.
In perhaps the strangest case of odd bedfellows, rival ex-premiers Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney have joined forces for a Canadian Chamber of Commerce campaign in support of keeping Alberta in Canada. Kenney in particular has emerged as a vocal anti-separatist, who has argued that, historically, followers of the movement couldn’t “get elected to dog catcher.”
Each group has functioned mostly individually.
“I see them rowing in the same direction,” Lukaszuk said of the other groups. “But in different canoes.”
But unlike the generally cohesive Yes and No campaigns in Quebec, it was never realistic — or allowed — for pro-Canada groups to unite under the same banner, says Jared Wesley, a professor of political science at the University of Alberta and a member of Lead Not Leave.
During Quebec’s referendum, each side was required to more or less co-operate under a national committee. In comparison, Alberta’s rules prevent collaboration. Campaign finance rules say groups — third party advertisers, specifically — can’t work together lest they risk running afoul of spending limits.
“Any conversation among federalists that are a part of these various groups always starts off with, ‘To be clear, we’re not co-ordinating, right?’” Wesley says with a laugh. “I mean, to be frank, the law simply does not allow us to compare notes.”
That means groups can’t share resources, co-ordinate events or vet each other’s public communications, he said.
In some ways, the splintered nature of the movement is an advantage, he argued.
“I think the notion that everyone should be part of one team on either side of the debate is based on an old way of political communications,” he said.
The media environment right now is very divided, Wesley said, meaning people get their information from a dizzying array of news organizations, websites and social media posts, often based on their own interests and political leanings.
‘It’s awkward’: Why Alberta’s separation debate tends to live mostly online
Because the federalist groups are similarly varied, they speak to different parts of the population, he added.
“Some of them are partisan; some aren’t. Some of them are moderate, some are progressive, some are conservative,” he said.
“The way that our public sphere is fractured suggests that’s not a bad strategy.”
There are also questions about the role — or lack thereof — of the institutional voices more common in political campaigning. Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly said she does not want Alberta to separate, but also put the question about separatism on the ballot and has been criticized by both sides for the role she has played in the campaign so far.
This week the Alberta government launched a $4-million advertising campaign on the referendum questions, which urges viewers to “stand up for a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” but doesn’t otherwise argue the federal case.
In an emailed statement, Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, said the government will use “various channels” to communicate with Albertans about the referendum questions, including online, TV, radio and social media.
“The Premier also travels across Alberta every summer and will continue speaking directly with Albertans through town halls, public events, media interviews and more,” he wrote.
The prime minister has been critical of the referendum — calling it a “dangerous bluff” back in May — and recently met with Forever Canadian campaigners, but hasn’t spearheaded a campaign.
In July, Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre appointed Alberta MP Dane Lloyd as the party’s point person on the referendum, writing at the time that Lloyd’s task was “not to scold Albertans” but to “hear” them.
But the party’s third-party advertiser, Conservatives for Canada, was only registered on Sept. 4 and has yet to raise any funds. This is the official entity that allows them to raise money and take a position on the referendum under election financing rules.
In an email, a spokesperson said turnout will be key, so Lloyd had been focused on “doorknocking and roundtable discussions in addition to social media, media appearances and much more.”
The concern about turnout is being echoed across the political spectrum.
More than 500,000 Albertans have applied to vote by mail in referendum: Elections Alberta
Speaking to media this week, Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said his party had been working on getting out the vote all summer, but he remained worried about motivation in the federal camp.
“The thing that worries me the most is I hear every single day, ‘Naheed, why are you so worked up about this? The separatists are never going to win,’” he said.
“The separatists are all going to vote. Every one of them will crawl over broken glass to vote.”
And if the other side doesn’t also turn up, that could be a real difference, he added.
There are some signs the federalists might be beginning to stir. Vote motivation on the federalist side has had a “significant boost” in recent weeks, according to new polling data from Pollara Strategic Insights.
In order to gauge motivation, Pollara asked people whether they would wait an hour in line to vote, which, with an unprecedented 10 referendum questions on the ballot, may not be a theoretical question come October.
What to expect when you’re voting in the Alberta referendum and watching results
For the first time, their most recent numbers found those voting to stay in Canada were more eager to cast a ballot than their opponents, with 64 per cent saying they were “very motivated” to vote. What the separatists may lack in numbers they make up for in enthusiasm, and their motivation number has hovered around the 60 per cent mark all summer.
“I think that’s a notable swing,” said Dan Arnold, Pollara’s chief strategy officer.
“My sense is that the biggest reason that we’re seeing a growth in motivation among voters who want to stay in Canada is a reaction to what’s going on with Trump,” he added.
In other signs of life, Canadian singer and songwriter Jann Arden is set to headline a free unity concert in Calgary this weekend at The Confluence billed as “for everyone who calls Canada home.”
The event really snowballed in the last three weeks, says event producer Ian Menzies, with both artists and organizers volunteering their labour, the city issuing the permits and Forever Canadian chipping in funding.
“I think there’s a lot of pent up [energy],” he said. “People are feeling like they want to have a way to express their fealty to Canada and their desire for unity.”
