The Conservatives taking power in British Columbia could help strengthen ties between the province and Alberta, but it could also spark competition between the provincial neighbours, some analysts say.
Premier-designate Lorne Doerkson won the provincial election Saturday, meaning his Conservatives will form government in B.C. for the first time in nearly a century.
Among his campaign promises was a pledge his government would double the province’s liquified natural gas (LNG) production by 2032 and triple it by 2035.
While good for Canada’s economy as a whole, it could prove slightly damaging to Alberta’s oil and gas sector, said Heather Exner-Pirot, director of natural resources, energy and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
“I don’t know that people appreciate the extent to which Alberta has benefited from B.C. not being as welcoming an environment for business. It’s made us more attractive and more competitive,” Exner-Pirot told CBC Radio’s Calgary Eyeopener.
“And so now we’ll just have to keep up.”
What to expect from the new B.C. Conservative government
Samantha Milles, a senior consultant at New West Public Affairs, says it could be a good thing to see more competition in the energy market.
“Iron sharpens iron when it comes to trying to attract business investment,” she said.
There could also be competition between B.C. and Alberta when it comes to federal investment, says Hamish Telford, associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley.
“Certainly [Prime Minister] Mark Carney has given Alberta a lot of attention since he came to power and B.C. often feels neglected,” he said.
“We’ll see if Mark Carney gives the same sort of love to B.C. under the new premier as he’s given to [Premier] Danielle Smith. And if he doesn’t, or if he’s perceived not to, that could create some tension.”
Doerkson said during a Sunday news conference that calls to Smith and Carney would be among the first he made, in order to get a working group moving on the new Pacific Link pipeline — a project that he supports.
In a statement, Smith said she spoke with Doerkson over the weekend, and the two discussed the “strong economic ties between British Columbia and Alberta, and the opportunities to build on them together.”
Milles says after an at-times fraught relationship between Smith and Doerkson’s predecessor, David Eby, the relationship will now “[move] from conflict to co-operation.”
“I would say this is one of the biggest resets to the relationship in at least a decade,” she said.
Telford agrees this relationship should be smoother.
“Premier David Eby could barely conceal his dislike or discomfort with Danielle Smith,” he said. “She certainly got under his skin.”
However, he says many British Columbians dislike Smith, and that will be something the new premier must keep in mind.
“Any sort of perception that Lorne Doerkson is perhaps getting too cozy with Danielle Smith would not go over well in certain quarters in British Columbia,” said Telford.
“And if that perception emerged, then I think that his government could be shorter-lived than he would want it to be.”
It did not take long following Doerkson’s win for renewed calls to be issued for Ottawa to end the tanker ban on B.C.’s North Coast — both from the federal Conservatives, and from Smith and Energy Minister Brian Jean.
An oil tanker is seen leaving the Trans Mountain Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, B.C., on Aug. 26, 2024. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is pushing to repeal an oil tanker ban on B.C.’s North Coast. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
“Repealing the ban would open the door to crude-by-rail exports through Prince Rupert, giving Alberta another route to reach customers around the world,” said the statement from Smith.
Carney and Eby signed an agreement in the summer upholding the ban.
The B.C. Conservatives’ energy plan does not make mention of the tanker ban.
Exner-Pirot says she thinks the B.C. Conservatives might not be opposed to the idea of dropping the ban. The focus then would need to be on reaching out to First Nations along the coast to garner their support of the idea.
That might be difficult, as Telford says many First Nations in the region are strongly opposed to lifting the ban.
And given Doerkson’s pledge to repeal the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act, his government is already perhaps not off to the best start with First Nations, Telford said.
“While of course pipelines are the topic du jour here in Alberta, there’s more than one file of course that [Smith and Doerkson] can collaborate on,” Milles said.
That could include anything from transportation to labour mobility to interprovincial trade of products like wine, she said.
Milles notes that three of the four Western provinces will now have conservative governments at their helm, potentially providing them some more common ground.
