Report: Stratos Project’s emissions could cause up to 45 premature deaths, illnesses each year

An embattled data center campus project in Utah could emit “dangerous quantities” of air pollution linked to premature deaths, illness like asthma and heart attacks, and health-related economic damage, a new report from the firm EmPower Analytics Group says.

The vision for the Stratos Project, a massive data center planned for Box Elder County, has gotten smaller since its original concept, going from a 40,000-acre plan to 20,000 acres. Still, its full buildout would include the production of about 9 gigawatts of power, more than double what the whole state consumes.

If the plan to use mostly natural gas to power it goes through, the data center campus could emit up to 3,140 tons of fine particulate matter, which would impact not only Utahns, but also residents in Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado. It could even reach Illinois, according to the report commissioned by the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental nonprofit.

“If that demand were met entirely by gas, our highest estimates reach 45 additional premature deaths and $690 million in health damages each year, with effects extending far beyond Utah,” Michael Cork, CEO of EmPower Analytics Group said in a news release. That’s assuming a 9 gigawatt buildout operating at 90% of capacity.

‘I seek to do better,’ Cox says after heated comments on Box Elder County data center

The project has been explicitly tied to the Ruby natural gas pipeline, and according to presentations from former Military Installation Development Authority officers leading the project, the power plant envisioned for the site was meant to be solely fueled by natural gas. 

But, after facing explosive scrutiny over the data center project, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said the developers, backed by “Shark Tank” celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary, have committed to pursue other energy resources, including renewables, energy storage and nuclear power generation in addition to natural gas.

A spokesperson for the Stratos Project developers didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.

The first phase of the project is not to exceed 1.5 gigawatts of energy generation, Cox said in May. Future permits “must be contingent on meeting clear metrics and expectations during this initial phase,” the governor said. But, there haven’t been any specific commitments on the energy generation technology for the center.

Natural gas options

The EmPower Analytics Group evaluated two plausible methane-gas technologies of 3 gigawatts and 9 gigawatts. One of them, powered by gas-fired reciprocating internal combustion engines, also known as RICE, has already been permitted to power a Joule Capital Partners data center campus in Millard County, another data center in Utah, the report says.

That technology is estimated to cause about five to six times the premature deaths and economic damages of modern combined-cycle gas, a more efficient method that integrates a gas turbine with a heat recovery cycle to drive a steam turbine, analysts said.

Whichever route the developers decide to take, if it’s powered by natural gas, it would imply substantial public health costs, the study says.

“Although generating technology, pollution controls, and operating practices will shape the magnitude of these harms, all scenarios are estimated to cause premature deaths and illness both near Stratos and across a much wider region,” analysts wrote. “These estimates account only for air pollution from on-site power generation and do not include other potential environmental and community impacts, such as construction, water use, noise, and land use.”

Over 30 years, Stratos’ natural gas power generation “could contribute to hundreds of premature deaths and billions of dollars in economic damages,” according to the study. At 9 gigawatts, “these harms could accumulate to approximately 856–1,350 premature deaths and $13.5–20.7 billion under gas-fired RICE, compared with 145–253 premature deaths and $2.3–3.8 billion under combined-cycle gas.”

It would also add pollution to a region already facing substantial air quality challenges since it’s prone to winter inversions and elevated summer ozone, the study says. The largest fine particulate matter increases would happen near the data center’s site, particularly in Box Elder and Cache counties, as well as southern Idaho.

Additionally, smaller increases of fine particulate matter would extend to the Wasatch Front and would extend to neighboring states, analysts said.

“Utah policymakers and regulators should consider the health and economic impacts identified in this analysis and account for them as they consider the future of large-scale off-grid, fossil fueled data centers in Utah, including the Stratos Project,” said Logan Mitchell, climate scientist and regulatory manager at Utah Clean Energy, who collaborated on the report. “Responsible off-grid data center developments should pursue the maximum amount of clean, emission-free generation resources ahead of fossil fuels.”