It’s a grand irony that the Trump-era trade war may accelerate clean energy adoption, especially of Chinese solar panels and batteries, in the very countries where energy demand and emissions are growing fastest: South and Southeast Asia. Other regions, from the Pacific to Scandinavia, will also benefit as electric vehicles and electro-tech from China become more available and affordable, despite US trade barriers.
This marks a shift: the world is going “post-America” just as it once went “post-Soviet.” Global attention is turning to the markets that matter — and they’re in Asia. This vast region, home to half the world’s population, is seeing the future unfold: the rooftop solar revolution is just beginning to accelerate.
With US tariff barriers changing by the day, manufacturers in Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand are competing with one another and China to sell clean energy tech to regional peers. China is investing in production capacity, such as battery factories in Indonesia and EV production in Pakistan. The result: nations once dependent on fossil fuel imports are starting to trade in technologies that make them energy independent. This is akin to the investment India made in the 1970s into coal production following the “oil shock” of the era.
Even before US tariffs, the tide was turning. In 2024, the Asian Development Bank mobilized a record $8.7 billion in non-sovereign co-financing, much of it for private sector clean energy in Asia and the Pacific. A key example is Thailand’s Gulf Solar and Battery Energy Storage Project, backed by $260 million from ADB and $529 million from other partners.
China is crushing it…
China is turning a critical corner. With massive manufacturing and clean energy deployment, it may finally be reducing coal dependence. In 2024 alone, China installed 120 GW of rooftop solar, denting coal demand by 1%. Paired with growing use of electric arc furnaces for steel and structural changes in the economy, the first quarter of 2025 might mark China’s peak in coal emissions.
Even more important: China’s green exports are booming. Since 2023, over $150 billion in foreign direct investment has flowed into its “new energy economy”—EVs, batteries, PV, wind, and more. In 2024, most solar exports went to Global South countries for the first time. And the Belt and Road Initiative now prioritizes “new energy” financing.
What about the rest of the region?
South Asia is rising too. Pakistan leads, but Bangladesh and India are scaling fast. India’s solar mission includes 10 million solar roofs. In Q4 2024 alone, India added 1.3 GW of rooftop solar — up 64% from Q3 and more than 219% year-on-year.
Pakistan will double solar installations in 2025
Pakistan’s solar boom, which surged in 2024, shows no signs of slowing in 2025. Based on first-quarter import data, the country may double its solar installs this year. At around 10 cents per watt, solar capacity is being deployed rapidly as citizens abandon an unaffordable grid. In Karachi, where nights can stay over 40°C, cooling is essential. Like California and Australia, Pakistan is learning to pair solar with storage to balance the grid. And any reduction in coal use will bring relief to some of the world’s worst urban air pollution.
AC demand will dwarf AI data center needs
Air conditioning demand — especially in megacities like Singapore, Lahore, Bangkok, and Jakarta — will drive rooftop solar adoption in Asia. Historically low electricity consumption is set to rise, with AC demand dwarfing debates in the West over whether data centers will require more power. In Asia, it’s about AC, not DC.
ASEAN takes off
Southeast Asia is just getting started. Generation in the ASEAN region was 26% renewable in 2024, well below the global average of 40% according to the global energy think tank Ember. With 690 million people and expected six-fold growth in energy demand, the region is ripe for a solar surge. There’s over 30,000 GW of potential known in the region, with only 26.6 GW of installed capacity.
Watch as these dynamic economies move to the average world capacity with the lowest cost source and then to achieve abundance. Vietnam has unlocked direct solar contracts for businesses; Malaysia has launched a new solar program; and Indonesia is surely going to catch up when its friends from Saudi Arabia to Australia are charging ahead.
Australia’s drive to be a renewable energy superpower
Australia, with its world-leading rooftop solar penetration, is a postcard from the future. South Australia now runs a grid with the highest solar, wind, and battery penetration, and no baseload. Last month, South Australia recorded its biggest drop in power prices. And as of December last year it had the most stable electricity supply in the national electricity market.
Combine that kind of know-how with the political will of the newly re-elected Labor government to become a renewable power and you have a huge role for the land down under. Australia’s job now is to share its grid integration know-how and low-cost clean energy products with the world.
This article was first published by Climate and Capital Media.
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